Early Prediction for Merged vs Abandoned Code Changes in Modern Code Reviews

TL;DR

This paper presents PredCR, a machine learning tool that predicts early whether code changes in modern reviews will be merged or abandoned, aiming to reduce wasted effort in software development.

Contribution

The paper introduces a novel LightGBM-based classifier, PredCR, that outperforms previous models by 14-23% in predicting code review outcomes using 25 features.

Findings

PredCR achieves around 85% AUC score.

Reviewer-related features are highly informative.

PredCR reduces bias against new developers.

Abstract

The modern code review process is an integral part of the current software development practice. Considerable effort is given here to inspect code changes, find defects, suggest an improvement, and address the suggestions of the reviewers. In a code review process, usually, several iterations take place where an author submits code changes and a reviewer gives feedback until is happy to accept the change. In around 12% cases, the changes are abandoned, eventually wasting all the efforts. In this research, our objective is to design a tool that can predict whether a code change would be merged or abandoned at an early stage to reduce the waste of efforts of all stakeholders (e.g., program author, reviewer, project management, etc.) involved. The real-world demand for such a tool was formally identified by a study by Fan et al. [1]. We have mined 146,612 code changes from the code reviews of three large and popular open-source software and trained and tested a suite of supervised machine learning classifiers, both shallow and deep learning based. We consider a total of 25 features in each code change during the training and testing of the models. The best performing model named PredCR (Predicting Code Review), a LightGBM-based classifier achieves around 85% AUC score on average and relatively improves the state-of-the-art [1] by 14-23%. In our empirical study on the 146,612 code changes from the three software projects, we find that (1) The new features like reviewer dimensions that are introduced in PredCR are the most informative. (2) Compared to the baseline, PredCR is more effective towards reducing bias against new developers. (3) PredCR uses historical data in the code review repository and as such the performance of PredCR improves as a software system evolves with new and more data.