A Time Series Analysis of Emotional Loading in Central Bank Statements

TL;DR

This study analyzes the emotional content of central bank statements over two decades, revealing links between economic conditions, leadership, and emotional tone, which challenges the assumption that such communication should be emotion-neutral.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive emotion analysis of central bank statements, highlighting how economic states and leadership influence emotional language in official communications.

Findings

Emotional dimensions vary with economic conditions.

The president in office impacts emotional tone.

A correlation exists between economic health and dominance in language.

Abstract

We examine the affective content of central bank press statements using emotion analysis. Our focus is on two major international players, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), covering a time span from 1998 through 2019. We reveal characteristic patterns in the emotional dimensions of valence, arousal, and dominance and find---despite the commonly established attitude that emotional wording in central bank communication should be avoided---a correlation between the state of the economy and particularly the dominance dimension in the press releases under scrutiny and, overall, an impact of the president in office.