Decision making under uncertainty in energy systems: state of the art

TL;DR

This paper reviews and classifies uncertainty modeling techniques in energy system decision making, introduces the concept of Z-numbers, and discusses future research directions with a comprehensive overview of past and present applications.

Contribution

It proposes a new standard classification of uncertainty modeling techniques and introduces the novel concept of Z-numbers for the first time in this context.

Findings

Comparison of uncertainty modeling methods highlighting their strengths and weaknesses

Introduction of Z-numbers as a new approach for uncertainty representation

Identification of promising future research directions in energy decision making under uncertainty

Abstract

The energy system studies include a wide range of issues from short term (e.g. real-time, hourly, daily and weekly operating decisions) to long term horizons (e.g. planning or policy making). The decision making chain is fed by input parameters which are usually subject to uncertainties. The art of dealing with uncertainties has been developed in various directions and has recently become a focal point of interest. In this paper, a new standard classification of uncertainty modeling techniques for decision making process is proposed. These methods are introduced and compared along with demonstrating their strengths and weaknesses. The promising lines of future researches are explored in the shadow of a comprehensive overview of the past and present applications. The possibility of using the novel concept of Z-numbers is introduced for the first time.