Domino Effects in the Earth System -- The potential role of wanted tipping points

TL;DR

This paper explores how social tipping points could trigger cascading effects that accelerate climate action, potentially preventing critical climate tipping points like ice sheet collapse, by leveraging positive feedbacks in attitudes and policies.

Contribution

It introduces the concept of social tipping points as a mechanism for cascading climate impacts and policy responses, emphasizing their role in avoiding natural climate tipping elements.

Findings

Linkages between climate knowledge, concern, and action are observed.

Social tipping points can serve as catalysts for rapid climate policy changes.

Positive feedbacks in social attitudes may enable timely climate mitigation.

Abstract

Vital parts of the climate system, such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, are at risk even within the aspired aims of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 -- 2{\deg}C. These so-called natural tipping elements are characterized by rapid qualitative shifts in their states once a critical threshold, e.g., of global mean temperature, is transgressed. We argue that the prevention of such unwanted tipping through effective climate policies may critically depend on cascading Domino effects from (anticipated) climate impacts to emission reductions via wanted social tipping in attitudes, behaviors and policies. Specifically, the latter has recently been noted as a key aspect in addressing contemporary global challenges, such as climate change, via self-amplifying positive feedbacks similar to the processes observable in climate tipping elements. Our discussion is supported with data on commonly observed linkages between (subjective) climate change knowledge, concern and consequential potential action and we argue that the presence of such interrelations serves as a necessary condition for the possibility of rapid climate action.