Predicting overweight and obesity in later life from childhood data: A review of predictive modeling approaches

TL;DR

This review examines predictive modeling approaches for forecasting childhood overweight and obesity, highlighting the predominance of logistic regression and the importance of late childhood data for accurate predictions.

Contribution

The paper systematically reviews existing research on childhood obesity prediction models, emphasizing the use of machine learning and the significance of late childhood data.

Findings

High-performance models often predict over short time periods.

Late childhood data improves prediction accuracy.

Logistic regression is the most common modeling method.

Abstract

Background: Overweight and obesity are an increasing phenomenon worldwide. Predicting future overweight or obesity early in the childhood reliably could enable a successful intervention by experts. While a lot of research has been done using explanatory modeling methods, capability of machine learning, and predictive modeling, in particular, remain mainly unexplored. In predictive modeling models are validated with previously unseen examples, giving a more accurate estimate of their performance and generalization ability in real-life scenarios. Objective: To find and review existing overweight or obesity research from the perspective of employing childhood data and predictive modeling methods. Methods: The initial phase included bibliographic searches using relevant search terms in PubMed, IEEE database and Google Scholar. The second phase consisted of iteratively searching references of potential studies and recent research that cite the potential studies. Results: Eight research articles and three review articles were identified as relevant for this review. Conclusions: Prediction models with high performance either have a relatively short time period to predict or/and are based on late childhood data. Logistic regression is currently the most often used method in forming the prediction models. In addition to child's own weight and height information, maternal weight status or body mass index was often used as predictors in the models.