Maximizing performance with an eye on the finances: a chance-constrained model for football transfer market decisions

TL;DR

This paper presents a chance-constrained model for football transfer decisions that balances team performance with financial risk, introducing a new player rating system and tested on real market data.

Contribution

It introduces a novel chance-constrained optimization model and a player rating system to improve football transfer decisions considering financial and performance factors.

Findings

Model effectively balances performance and financial risk.

New rating system objectively assesses player performance.

Model tested successfully on real market data.

Abstract

Composing a team of professional players is among the most crucial decisions in association football. Nevertheless, transfer market decisions are often based on myopic objectives and are questionable from a financial point of view. This paper introduces a chance-constrained model to provide analytic support to club managers during transfer windows. The model seeks a top-performing team while adapting to different budgets and financial-risk profiles. In addition, it provides a new rating system that is able to numerically reflect the on-field performance of football players and thus contribute to an objective assessment of football players. The model and rating system are tested on a case study based on real market data. The data from the case study are available online for the benefit of future research.