Building Conflict Uncertainty into Electricity Planning: A South Sudan Case Study

TL;DR

This paper develops a stochastic optimization model for electricity planning in conflict-prone South Sudan, highlighting the role of solar photovoltaics in mitigating conflict-related risks and economic losses.

Contribution

It introduces a novel framework that explicitly incorporates conflict uncertainty into energy system planning, emphasizing solar's strategic importance.

Findings

Hedging strategies are most valuable in moderate conflict damage scenarios.

Solar photovoltaics significantly enhance system resilience and economic stability.

The framework can be adapted to other conflict-affected regions.

Abstract

This paper explores electricity planning strategies in South Sudan under future conflict uncertainty. A stochastic energy system optimization model that explicitly considers the possibility of armed conflict leading to electric power generator damage is presented. Strategies that hedge against future conflict have the greatest economic value in moderate conflict-related damage scenarios by avoiding expensive near-term investments in infrastructure that may be subsequently damaged. Model results show that solar photovoltaics can play a critical role in South Sudan's future electric power system. In addition to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and increasing access to electricity, this analysis suggests that solar can be used to hedge against economic losses incurred by conflict. While this analysis focuses on South Sudan, the analytical framework can be applied to other conflict-prone countries.