The systemic growth constants of climate change: From its origin in 1780 to its major post-WWII acceleration

TL;DR

This paper identifies long-term growth constants in atmospheric CO2, revealing a shift from exponential growth around 1780 to accelerated growth post-1960, and projects future temperature rise using analog curve fitting.

Contribution

It introduces a method to determine systemic growth constants in atmospheric CO2 and applies it to project future climate change scenarios.

Findings

Growth constants shifted from 1.48%/yr to 2.0%/yr after 1960

Analog curve fitting projects a 1.89°C temperature rise by 2040

Long-term steady states suggest transitions between stable global environmental states

Abstract

The recent discovery of long term growth constants in the accumulation of atmospheric CO2, confirmed by two methods, enables analog methods for dating the beginning of climate change at ~1780 and projecting its near term future. Here we show that the preceding wavy variation in CO2 PPM abruptly shifts to exponential, moving symmetrically around a growth constant of 1.48 %/yr until WWII, and after a pause rises to hover about a higher constant growth constant from 1960 on of 2.0 %/yr. Such long term steady states of global environmental change suggest transitions between stable states of global self-organization. A method of analog curve fitting to project the current steady state of acceleration is tested, suggesting a 2040 earth temperature rise of 1.89 deg C above the IPCC baseline. A very brief following discussion of what a systemic growth constant for atmospheric CO2 implies and model strategies for responding to it.