A new tool for predicting the solar cycle: Correlation between flux transport at the equator and the poles

TL;DR

This study explores the correlation between magnetic flux cancellation at the solar equator and flux transport to the poles, proposing a new predictive tool for solar cycle amplitude estimation based on magnetogram data.

Contribution

It introduces a novel correlation analysis between flux cancellation and polar field strength, enhancing solar cycle prediction methods.

Findings

Good correlation between equatorial flux cancellation and polar flux transport.

Strong link between equatorial flux cancellation and polar field strength at cycle minimum.

Estimated maximum sunspot numbers for Solar Cycle 25: 77±5 (North), 85±5 (South).

Abstract

The magnetic flux cancellation on the Sun plays a crucial role in determining the manner in which the net magnetic flux changes in every solar cycle, affecting the large scale evolution of the coronal magnetic fields and heliospheric environment. We investigate, in this paper, the correlation between the solar magnetic flux cancelled at the equator and the solar magnetic flux transported to the poles by comparing the net amount of magnetic flux in the latitude belt 0${^{\circ}}$-5${^{\circ}}$ and 45${^{\circ}}$-60${^{\circ}}$, estimated using synoptic magnetograms from National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak, during Solar Cycles 21-24. We find a good correlation between the net flux in the latitude band 0${^{\circ}}$-5${^{\circ}}$ and 55${^{\circ}}$-60${^{\circ}}$ for the Northern as well as for the Southern hemispheres. However, we find a poor correlation if the net flux for the Northern and Southern hemispheres are considered together. In addition, we investigate the correlation between the net flux cancelled at the equator and the strength of solar polar field at cycle minimum, and find a good correlation between the two. We discuss the implication of the correlation of flux transported across the equator and to the poles that has an important bearing in the estimation of the residual polar cap field strength at the cycle minimum. This can be used a predictive tool for estimating the amplitude of subsequent cycles and we use this to estimate maximum smoothed sunspot numbers of 77$\pm$5 and 85$\pm$5 for the Northern and Southern hemispheres, respectively, for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25.