Dynamic Influence on Replicator Evolution for the Propagation of Competing Technologies

TL;DR

This paper presents a modified Replicator Dynamics model incorporating external influences to simulate and predict the competition between technologies, demonstrated through the rise of Android over iPhone from 2009 to 2017.

Contribution

It introduces a dynamic influence framework that adjusts payoff matrices in replicator models based on real data, enabling realistic market outcome predictions.

Findings

Model accurately predicts Android's rise over iPhone from 2009 to 2017.

External influences significantly impact technology market competition.

Framework can be applied to other market dynamics and technology competitions.

Abstract

This work introduces a novel modified Replicator Dynamics model, which includes external influences on the population. This framework models a realistic market into which companies, the external dynamic influences, invest resources in order to bolster their product's standing and increase their market share. The dynamic influences change in each time step of the game, and directly modify the payoff matrix of the population's interactions. The model can learn from real data how each influence affects the market, and can be used to simulate and predict the outcome of a real system. We specifically analyze how a new technology can compete and attempt to unseat an entrenched technology as the market leader. We establish a relationship between the external influences and the population payoff matrix and show how the system can be implemented to predict outcomes in a real market by simulating the rise of the Android mobile operating system over its primary competition, the iPhone, from 2009 to 2017.