Systematic errors in strong gravitational lensing reconstructions, a numerical simulation perspective

TL;DR

This study uses numerical simulations and a novel Bayesian inference method to analyze systematic errors in strong gravitational lensing reconstructions, revealing biases in source size and Hubble constant estimates due to lens core structures.

Contribution

It introduces a new inference framework and demonstrates how lens core structures cause systematic biases in lensing parameter recovery.

Findings

Source sizes underestimated by 50% on average.

Hubble constant estimates have a fractional error of about 25%.

No significant substructure detection was achieved, consistent with simulation inputs.

Abstract

We present the analysis of a sample of twenty-four SLACS-like galaxy-galaxy strong gravitational lens systems with a background source and deflectors from the Illustris-1 simulation. We study the degeneracy between the complex mass distribution of the lenses, substructures, the surface brightness distribution of the sources, and the time delays. Using a novel inference framework based on Approximate Bayesian Computation, we find that for all the considered lens systems, an elliptical and cored power-law mass density distribution provides a good fit to the data. However, the presence of cores in the simulated lenses affects most reconstructions in the form of a Source Position Transformation. The latter leads to a systematic underestimation of the source sizes by 50 per cent on average, and a fractional error in $H_{0}$ of around $25_{-19}^{+37}$ per cent. The analysis of a control sample of twenty-four lens systems, for which we have perfect knowledge about the shape of the lensing potential, leads to a fractional error on $H_{0}$ of $12_{-3}^{+6}$ per cent. We find no degeneracy between complexity in the lensing potential and the inferred amount of substructures. We recover an average total projected mass fraction in substructures of $f_{\rm sub}<1.7-2.0\times10^{-3}$ at the 68 per cent confidence level in agreement with zero and the fact that all substructures had been removed from the simulation. Our work highlights the need for higher-resolution simulations to quantify the lensing effect of more realistic galactic potentials better, and that additional observational constraint may be required to break existing degeneracies.