A Rational Finance Explanation of the Stock Predictability Puzzle

TL;DR

This paper presents a rational finance model that explains stock return predictability and its impact on option pricing, revealing asymmetric predictability effects between spot and option traders based on moneyness.

Contribution

It introduces a statistical model within rational finance to incorporate stock return predictability into option pricing, challenging behavioral finance explanations.

Findings

Option trader predictability increases with moneyness

Spot trader predictability decreases with moneyness

Variance measures can predict stock returns

Abstract

In this paper, we address one of the main puzzles in finance observed in the stock market by proponents of behavioral finance: the stock predictability puzzle. We offer a statistical model within the context of rational finance which can be used without relying on behavioral finance assumptions to model the predictability of stock returns. We incorporate the predictability of stock returns into the well-known Black-Scholes option pricing formula. Empirically, we analyze the option and spot trader's market predictability of stock prices by defining a forward-looking measure which we call "implied excess predictability". The empirical results indicate the effect of option trader's predictability of stock returns on the price of stock options is an increasing function of moneyness, while this effect is decreasing for spot traders. These empirical results indicate potential asymmetric predictability of stock prices by spot and option traders. We show in pricing options with the strike price significantly higher or lower than the stock price, the predictability of the underlying stock's return should be incorporated into the option pricing formula. In pricing options that have moneyness close to one, stock return predictability is not incorporated into the option pricing model because stock return predictability is the same for both types of traders. In other words, spot traders and option traders are equally informed about the future value of the stock market in this case. Comparing different volatility measures, we find that the difference between implied and realized variances or variance risk premium can potentially be used as a stock return predictor.