Inter-Party Avalanche Involvements May Increase Quadratically With Party Density

TL;DR

This paper models how inter-party avalanche involvements increase quadratically with party density, predicting higher risks as more parties operate in the same area, supported by historical incident analysis.

Contribution

It introduces a first-principles model linking party density to avalanche involvement rates and discusses mitigation strategies.

Findings

Inter-party involvements increase quadratically with party density.

When the product of party density and avalanche area approaches one, involvements become significant.

Historical incidents support the model's relevance and timeliness.

Abstract

We estimate, from first-principles, the rate of inter-party avalanche involvements. The model suggests that the likelihood of inter-party involvements is quadratic in the density of parties -- twice as many parties quadruples the likelihood. The model predicts that when the product of the party-density and the area of a day's potential avalanches approaches one, inter-party avalanche involvements will become a substantial fraction of all avalanche involvements. As a corollary, the relative rate of inter-party involvements is expected to increase with avalanche size. We argue, with selected North American inter-party incidents from 2001-2019, that inter-party involvements are a timely concern. To spur conversation, we enumerate a variety of strategies that may mitigate inter-party hazard.