Schwabe, Gleissberg, Suess-de Vries: Towards a consistent model of planetary synchronization of solar cycles

TL;DR

This paper develops a planetary synchronization model of solar cycles, linking historical cycle deviations to planetary influences, and predicts a forthcoming grand minimum in solar activity.

Contribution

It introduces a modulated solar dynamo model based on planetary orbital dynamics, explaining long-term solar cycle periodicities and their synchronization.

Findings

Identification of a 200-year Suess-de Vries cycle in solar activity residuals.

Model predicts a grand solar minimum in the 21st century.

Demonstrates how planetary influences can modulate solar dynamo cycles.

Abstract

Aiming at a consistent planetary synchronization model of both short-term and long-term solar cycles, we start with an analysis of Schove's historical data of cycle maxima. Their deviations (residuals) from the average cycle duration of 11.07 years show a high degree of regularity, comprising a dominant 200-year period (Suess-de Vries cycle), and a few periods around 100 years (Gleissberg cycle). Encouraged by their robustness, we support previous forecasts of an upcoming grand minimum in the 21st century. To explain the long-term cycles, we enhance our tidally synchronized solar dynamo model by a modulation of the field storage capacity of the tachocline with the orbital angular momentum of the Sun, which is dominated by the 19.86-year periodicity of the Jupiter-Saturn synodes. This modulation of the 22.14 years Hale cycle leads to a 193-year beat period of dynamo activity which is indeed close to the Suess-de Vries cycle. For stronger dynamo modulation, the model produces additional peaks at typical Gleissberg frequencies, which seem to be explainable by the non-linearities of the basic beat process, leading to a bi-modality of the Schwabe cycle. However, a complementary role of beat periods between the Schwabe cycle and the Jupiter-Uranus/Neptune synodic cycles cannot be completely excluded.