A Fresh Look at the "Hot Hand" Paradox

TL;DR

This paper investigates the mean waiting times for specific sequences in fair coin flips, revealing surprising differences and providing exact calculations for sequences of various lengths using the backward Kolmogorov equation.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of the backward Kolmogorov equation to compute exact and asymptotic mean waiting times for fixed sequences in coin flips.

Findings

Mean waiting time for HH is 6, for HT is 4.

Derived exact waiting times for sequences of lengths 3, 4, 5.

For large n, the waiting time for 2n heads is approximately three times that for n alternating heads and tails.

Abstract

We use the backward Kolmogorov equation approach to understand the apparently paradoxical feature that the mean waiting time to encounter distinct fixed-length sequences of heads and tails upon repeated fair coin flips can be different. For sequences of length 2, the mean time until the sequence HH (heads-heads) appears equals 6, while the waiting time for the sequence HT (heads-tails) equals 4. We give complete results for the waiting times of sequences of lengths 3, 4, and 5; the extension to longer sequences is straightforward (albeit more tedious). We also derive the moment generating functions, from which any moment of the mean waiting time for specific sequences can be found. Finally, we compute the mean waiting times $T_{2n\rm H}$ for $2n$ heads in a row and $T_{n\rm(HT)}$ for $n$ alternating heads and tails. For large $n$, $T_{2n\rm H}\sim 3 T_{n\rm(HT)}$. Thus distinct sequences of coin flips of the same length can have very different mean waiting times.