Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Transmission Dynamics of Lassa fever

TL;DR

This paper develops a mathematical model using differential equations to understand Lassa fever transmission, emphasizing seasonality, and provides insights for effective intervention strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a novel seasonal non-autonomous differential equation model for Lassa fever transmission, incorporating seasonality and control measures.

Findings

Early Ribavirin treatment reduces mortality.

Preventive measures decrease disease morbidity.

Model aids in designing cost-effective intervention strategies.

Abstract

In this work, a periodically-forced seasonal non-autonomous system of a non-linear ordinary differential equation is developed that captures the dynamics of Lassa fever transmission and seasonal variation in the birth of mastomys rodents where time was measured in days to capture seasonality. It was shown that the model is epidemiologically meaningful and mathematically well-posed by using the results from the qualitative properties of the solution of the model. It was established that in order to eliminate Lassa fever disease, treatments with Ribavirin must be provided early to reduce mortality and other preventive measures like an educational campaign, community hygiene, Isolation of infected humans, and culling/destruction of rodents must be applied to also reduce the morbidity of the disease. Finally, the obtained results gave a primer framework for planning and designing cost-effective strategies for good interventions in eliminating Lassa fever.