Local alliances and rivalries shape near-repeat terror activity of al-Qaeda, ISIS and insurgents

TL;DR

This study analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns of terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda, ISIS, and insurgents, revealing near-repeat and near-response dynamics influenced by relationships and regional interactions.

Contribution

It introduces a data-driven analysis of terrorist activity correlations across regions, highlighting how alliances and rivalries shape attack patterns and response times.

Findings

Near-repeat activity occurs within 20km and 4-10 weeks.

Response dynamics depend on organizational relationships.

Asymmetric response times between global and local groups.

Abstract

We study the spatiotemporal correlation of terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda, ISIS, and local insurgents, in six geographical areas identified via $k$-means clustering applied to the Global Terrorism Database. All surveyed organizations exhibit near-repeat activity whereby a prior attack increases the likelihood of a subsequent one by the same group within 20km and on average 4 (al Qaeda) to 10 (ISIS) weeks. Near-response activity, whereby an attack by a given organization elicits further attacks from a different one, is found to depend on the adversarial, neutral or collaborative relationship between the two. When in conflict, local insurgents respond quickly to attacks by global terror groups while global terror groups delay their responses to local insurgents, leading to an asymmetric dynamic. When neutral or allied, attacks by one group enhance the response likelihood of the other, regardless of hierarchy. These trends arise consistently in all clusters for which data is available. Government intervention and spill-over effects are also discussed; we find no evidence of outbidding. Understanding the regional dynamics of terrorism may be greatly beneficial in policy-making and intervention design.