The Impacts of the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend on High School Status Completion Rates

TL;DR

This study investigates whether the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend, an unconditional cash transfer to all residents, influenced high school completion rates using a synthetic control method from 1977 to 1991.

Contribution

It provides the first empirical analysis of society-wide educational impacts of unconditional cash transfers in a developed country context.

Findings

No significant change in high school completion rates post-dividend

The synthetic control closely matches pre-dividend trends

Results suggest minimal impact of unconditional cash transfers on education

Abstract

Direct cash transfer programs have shown success as poverty interventions in both the developing and developed world, yet little research exists examining the society-wide outcomes of an unconditional cash transfer program disbursed without means-testing. This paper attempts to determine the impact of direct cash transfers on educational outcomes in a developed society by investigating the impacts of the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend, which was launched in 1982 and continues to be disbursed on an annual basis to every Alaskan. A synthetic control model is deployed to examine the path of educational attainment among Alaskans between 1977 and 1991 in order to determine if high school status completion rates after the launch of the dividend diverge from the synthetic in a manner suggestive of a treatment effect.