Simulation of land use dynamics in Paragominas-PA: differences in spatial rules between smallholdings and agribusiness areas

TL;DR

This study simulates land use changes in Paragominas-PA, revealing distinct spatial dynamics between smallholdings and agribusiness areas influenced by soil types, topography, and historical occupation, highlighting the role of natural variables in land management decisions.

Contribution

The paper introduces a land use simulation model that differentiates spatial dynamics between smallholdings and agribusiness areas based on natural environmental factors.

Findings

Deforestation in commercial areas linked to sandy soils and livestock.

Soybean expansion on pastures and clay soils reduces pasture availability.

Settlement areas show land transitions influenced by historical occupation and soil types.

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to present the results of the land use dynamic simulations in the municipality of Paragominas-PA. The simulation is based on models built from past land use data and spatial variables of the natural environment and infrastructure. Two spatial units were analyzed: the central area of commercial agricultural production and the area of settlements and smallholdings the east. The results show distinct spatial dynamics between the analyzed areas, among which we highlight the role of soil characteristics and, associated with the topography and the occupation history, are part of the context in which is defined rationality producers. Considering the transition from forest to pasture in the commercial farming area most often associated soils are sandy. This raises the following hypothesis: the deforestation that occurred in the period are related to livestock activities. Livestock favors access to water and low fertility sands does not affect production. On the other hand, the soybean expansion occurred preferentially on existing pastures and on clay soils (Belterra clay), reducing the availability of pastures on these soils. The relative importance of types of soil increases with time. In the area of settlements, the transition from forest to pasture and family crops occurred preferentially on the variegated clay. However, it is possible that the prevalence of this transition on this texture has been given due more to the history of occupation of this area. Historically the sandy valleys were the first to be occupied, and the continuity of the deforestation occurred toward the slopes dominated by variegated clay and plateaus with Belterra clay. These associations observed indicate that, within a wider context of social, economic and political factors, natural variable factors in space are important for the choice of managements in the properties, but they are done differently in the territory, and the best knowledge of these relationships are useful for territorial planning.