Inequalities, chance and success in sport competitions: simulations vs empirical data

TL;DR

This study quantifies the influence of chance versus talent in 100-meter dash success by comparing empirical data with agent-based simulations, revealing a small but significant role of luck in top performances.

Contribution

It introduces a novel method combining empirical data and agent-based modeling to estimate the role of chance in sports success.

Findings

Luck contributes a small but measurable part to top sprint performances.

Simulations align with empirical data, supporting the model's validity.

Randomness influences perceived inequalities among top athletes.

Abstract

We present a new way of estimation of the role of chance in achieving success, by comparing the empirical data from 100-meter dash competitions (one of the sports disciplines with the most stringent controls of external randomness), with the results of an agent-based computer model, which assumes that success depends jointly on the intrinsic talent of the agent and on unpredictable luck. We find a small, but non-zero contribution of random luck to the performance of the best sprinters, which may serve as a lower bound for the randomness role in other, less stringently controlled competitive domains. Additionally we discuss the perception of the payoff differences among the top participants, and the role of random luck in the resulting inequality.