Application of Synoptic Magnetograms to Global Solar Activity Forecast

TL;DR

This study integrates synoptic magnetograms into a mean-field dynamo model using Ensemble Kalman Filter to forecast solar activity, predicting a weaker Solar Cycle 25 with specific timing and hemispheric differences.

Contribution

It introduces a novel data assimilation approach combining synoptic magnetograms with a mean-field dynamo model for improved solar activity forecasting.

Findings

Predicted Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24.

A deep solar minimum is expected during 2019-2021.

The next solar maximum will occur in 2024-2025 with specific hemispheric differences.

Abstract

Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work, poloidal and toroidal magnetic field components derived from synoptic magnetograms are assimilated, using the Ensemble Kalman Filter method, into a mean-field dynamo model based on Parker's migratory dynamo theory complemented by magnetic helicity conservation. It was found that the predicted toroidal field is in good agreement with observations for almost the entire following solar cycle. However, poloidal field predictions agree with observations only for the first 2 - 3 years of the predicted cycle. The results indicate that the upcoming Solar Maximum of Cycle 25 (SC25) is expected to be weaker than the current Cycle 24. The model results show that a deep extended solar activity minimum is expected during 2019 - 2021, and that the next solar maximum will occur in 2024 - 2025. The sunspot number at the maximum will be about 50 with an error estimate of 15 - 30 %. The maximum will likely have a double peak or show extended periods (for 2 - 2.5 years) of high activity. According to the hemispheric prediction results, SC25 will start in 2020 in the Southern hemisphere, and will have a maximum in 2024 with a sunspot number of about 28. In the Northern hemisphere the cycle will be delayed for about 1 year (with an error of $\pm 0.5$ year), and reach a maximum in 2025 with a sunspot number of about 23.