The Precision of Mass Measurements Required for Robust Atmospheric Characterization of Transiting Exoplanets

TL;DR

This paper investigates the necessary precision in mass measurements of transiting exoplanets to reliably determine their atmospheric properties using JWST transmission spectra, highlighting different requirements based on planet type and metallicity.

Contribution

It provides quantitative guidelines on mass measurement precision needed for robust atmospheric characterization of various exoplanets, linking mass accuracy to atmospheric inference quality.

Findings

Mass can be inferred from transmission spectra only for cloud-free, low metallicity gas giants (~10% accuracy).

Atmospheric properties of terrestrial-like planets require mass precision better than ~50%.

A ~20% mass precision is needed for detailed atmospheric analysis where data quality dominates uncertainties.

Abstract

Two of TESS's major science goals are to measure masses for 50 planets smaller than 4 Earth radii and to discover high-quality targets for atmospheric characterization efforts. It is important that these two goals are linked by quantifying what precision of mass constraint is required to yield robust atmospheric properties of planets. Here, we address this by conducting retrievals on simulated JWST transmission spectra under various assumptions for the degree of uncertainty in the planet's mass for a representative population of seven planets ranging from terrestrials to warm Neptunes to hot Jupiters. Only for the cloud-free, low metallicity gas giants are we able to infer exoplanet mass from transmission spectroscopy alone, to ~10% accuracy. For low metallicity cases (<4xSolar) we are able to accurately constrain atmospheric properties without prior knowledge of the planet's mass. For all other cases (including terrestrial-like planets), atmospheric properties can only be inferred with a mass precision of better than ~50%. At this level, though, the widths of the posterior distributions of the atmospheric properties are dominated by the uncertainties in mass. With a precision of ~20%, the widths of the posterior distributions are dominated by the spectroscopic data quality. Therefore, as a rule-of-thumb, we recommend: a ~50% mass precision for initial atmospheric characterization and a ~20% mass precision for more detailed atmospheric analyses.