Propaganda, Alternative Media, and Accountability in Fragile Democracies

TL;DR

This paper models how mainstream and alternative media influence electoral accountability in fragile democracies, highlighting the effects of media reliability on voters' ability to remove aspiring autocrats and maintain democracy.

Contribution

It introduces a model analyzing the impact of truthful and malicious alternative media on electoral accountability and democratic stability.

Findings

Truthful media helps voters identify and remove autocrats.

Malicious media spreads false accusations, demotivating incumbents.

High unreliability of alternative media leads voters to ignore it, enabling autocrats.

Abstract

We develop a model of electoral accountability with mainstream and alternative media. In addition to regular high- and low-competence types, the incumbent may be an aspiring autocrat who controls the mainstream media and will subvert democracy if retained in office. A truthful alternative media can help voters identify and remove these subversive types while re-electing competent leaders. A malicious alternative media, in contrast, spreads false accusations about the incumbent and demotivates policy effort. If the alternative media is very likely be malicious and hence is unreliable, voters ignore it and use only the mainstream media to hold regular incumbents accountable, leaving aspiring autocrats to win re-election via propaganda that portrays them as effective policymakers. When the alternative media's reliability is intermediate, voters heed its warnings about subversive incumbents, but the prospect of being falsely accused demotivates effort by regular incumbents and electoral accountability breaks down.