What do adoption patterns of solar panels observed so far tell about governments' incentive? insight from diffusion models

TL;DR

This study uses diffusion models to analyze global solar panel adoption, revealing that government incentives have limited long-term impact and highlighting the need to address additional barriers for sustained market growth.

Contribution

The paper applies the generalized Bass model to international solar panel adoption data, providing new insights into the limited effectiveness of public incentives.

Findings

Market lacks sustained growth despite incentives

Major shocks had only short-term effects

Barriers beyond incentives hinder adoption

Abstract

The paper uses diffusion models to understand the main determinants of diffusion of solar photovoltaic panels (SPP) worldwide, focusing on the role of public incentives. We applied the generalized Bass model (GBM) to adoption data of 26 countries between 1992-2016. The SPP market appears as a frail and complicate one, lacking public media support. Even the major shocks in adoption curves, following state incentive implemented after 2006, failed to go beyond short-term effects and therefore were unable to provide sustained momentum to the market. This suggests that further barriers to adoption should be removed.