The maximum likelihood climate change for global warming under the influence of greenhouse effect and L\'evy noise

TL;DR

This paper develops a probabilistic framework using a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation to analyze abrupt climate transitions influenced by non-Gaussian Le9vy noise and greenhouse effects, revealing step-like warming processes.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach to model climate change under Le9vy noise, extending beyond classical Gaussian assumptions, and provides insights into abrupt climate shifts.

Findings

Large noise jumps can trigger rapid climate shifts.

A 1.5b0C warming shows a step-like growth pattern.

Le9vy noise influences the timing and nature of climate transitions.

Abstract

An abrupt climatic transition could be triggered by a single extreme event, an $\alpha$-stable non-Gaussian L\'evy noise is regarded as a type of noise to generate such extreme events. In contrast with the classic Gaussian noise, a comprehensive approach of the most probable transition path for systems under $\alpha$-stable L\'evy noise is still lacking. We develop here a probabilistic framework, based on the nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, to investigate the maximum likelihood climate change for an energy balance system under the influence of greenhouse effect and L\'evy fluctuations. We find that a period of the cold climate state can be interrupted by a sharp shift to the warmer one due to larger noise jumps, and the climate change for warming $1.5\rm ^oC$ under an enhanced greenhouse effect generates a step-like growth process. These results provide important insights into the underlying mechanisms of abrupt climate transitions triggered by a L\'evy process.