Impact of rogue active regions on hemispheric asymmetry

TL;DR

This study uses advanced solar dynamo modeling to show that atypical bipolar magnetic regions can influence the strength and hemispheric asymmetry of future solar cycles by affecting the polar flux and dipole moment buildup.

Contribution

It demonstrates how rogue active regions can alter solar cycle strength and hemispheric asymmetry, providing insights into predicting solar activity variations.

Findings

Rogue BMRs can modify the next cycle's strength.

Hemispheric asymmetry in polar flux correlates with future sunspot asymmetry.

Strong correlation between cycle i polar flux asymmetry and cycle i+1 sunspot asymmetry.

Abstract

The solar dipole moment at activity minimum is a good predictor of the strength of the subsequent solar cycle. Through a systematic analysis using a state-of-the-art 2$\times$2 D solar dynamo model, we found that bipolar magnetic regions (BMR) with atypical characteristics can modify the strength of the next cycle via their impact on the buildup of the dipole moment as a sunspot cycle unfolds. In addition to summarizing these results, we present further effects of such "rogue" BMRs. These have the ability to generate hemispheric asymmetry in the subsequent sunspot cycle, since they modify the polar cap flux asymmetry of the ongoing cycle. We found strong correlation between the polar cap flux asymmetry of cycle i and the total pseudo sunspot number asymmetry of cycle i + 1 . Good correlation also appears in the case of the time lag of the hemispheres of cycle i + 1.