Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions

TL;DR

This paper presents a century-scale, data-driven model predicting that solar cycle 25 will be similar or slightly stronger than the current cycle, peaking around 2024, with implications for space weather and climate.

Contribution

It introduces a novel scheme extending solar cycle prediction to a decade using magnetic field evolution models and ensemble forecasts.

Findings

Cycle 25 may be similar or slightly stronger than current cycle

Peak predicted around 2024

Fluctuations in sunspot tilt angles drive cycle variability

Abstract

The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar cycle is challenging. Current understanding indicates a short window for prediction best achieved at previous cycle minima. Utilizing magnetic field evolution models for the Sun's surface and interior we perform the first century-scale, data-driven simulations of solar activity and present a scheme for extending the prediction window to a decade. Our ensemble forecast indicates cycle 25 would be similar or slightly stronger than the current cycle and peak around 2024. Sunspot cycle 25 may thus reverse the substantial weakening trend in solar activity which has led to speculation of an imminent Maunder-like grand minimum and cooling global climate. Our simulations demonstrate fluctuation in the tilt angle distribution of sunspots is the dominant mechanism responsible for solar cycle variability.