Taxing dissent: The impact of a social media tax in Uganda

TL;DR

This study investigates Uganda's social media tax, revealing it decreased overall Twitter activity but unexpectedly increased political dissent and protests, challenging its effectiveness as a suppression tool.

Contribution

The paper introduces a novel empirical analysis of the social media tax's effects using a synthetic control approach, highlighting unintended consequences on dissent.

Findings

Twitter use declined by 13% after the tax

Tweets referencing collective action increased by 31%

Observed protests increased by 47%

Abstract

We examine the impact of a new tool for suppressing the expression of dissent---a daily tax on social media use. Using a synthetic control framework, we estimate that the tax reduced the number of georeferenced Twitter users in Uganda by 13 percent. The estimated treatment effects are larger for poorer and less frequent users. Despite the overall decline in Twitter use, tweets referencing collective action increased by 31 percent and observed protests increased by 47 percent. These results suggest that taxing social media use may not be an effective tool for reducing political dissent.