Almost all orbits of the Collatz map attain almost bounded values

TL;DR

This paper proves that for almost all positive integers, the Collatz orbit attains values bounded by any function tending to infinity, advancing understanding of the orbit's behavior and supporting the Collatz conjecture.

Contribution

It establishes that almost all Collatz orbits reach values below any unbounded function, using probabilistic and harmonic analysis methods.

Findings

Almost all Collatz orbits attain arbitrarily large bounds

The proof uses characteristic function estimates of a related random walk

Introduces a new approach via renewal processes and harmonic analysis

Abstract

Define the \emph{Collatz map} $\mathrm{Col} : \mathbb{N}+1 \to \mathbb{N}+1$ on the positive integers $\mathbb{N}+1 = \{1,2,3,\dots\}$ by setting $\mathrm{Col}(N)$ equal to $3N+1$ when $N$ is odd and $N/2$ when $N$ is even, and let $\mathrm{Col}_{\min}(N) := \inf_{n \in \mathbb{N}} \mathrm{Col}^n(N)$ denote the minimal element of the Collatz orbit $N, \mathrm{Col}(N), \mathrm{Col}^2(N), \dots$. The infamous \emph{Collatz conjecture} asserts that $\mathrm{Col}_{\min}(N)=1$ for all $N \in \mathbb{N}+1$. Previously, it was shown by Korec that for any $\theta > \frac{\log 3}{\log 4} \approx 0.7924$, one has $\mathrm{Col}_{\min}(N) \leq N^\theta$ for almost all $N \in \mathbb{N}+1$ (in the sense of natural density). In this paper we show that for \emph{any} function $f : \mathbb{N}+1 \to \mathbb{R}$ with $\lim_{N \to \infty} f(N)=+\infty$, one has $\mathrm{Col}_{\min}(N) \leq f(N)$ for almost all $N \in \mathbb{N}+1$ (in the sense of logarithmic density). Our proof proceeds by establishing an approximate transport property for a certain first passage random variable associated with the Collatz iteration (or more precisely, the closely related Syracuse iteration), which in turn follows from estimation of the characteristic function of a certain skew random walk on a $3$-adic cyclic group at high frequencies. This estimation is achieved by studying how a certain two-dimensional renewal process interacts with a union of triangles associated to a given frequency.