Mape_Maker: A Scenario Creator

TL;DR

Mape_Maker introduces algorithms to generate probabilistic scenarios reflecting potential future forecast accuracy changes, aiding in renewable energy planning and simulation-based analyses by creating realistic alternative realizations.

Contribution

The paper presents novel algorithms for scenario creation that account for varying forecast accuracy, enhancing future planning and simulation methods in renewable energy.

Findings

Generates realistic alternative forecast scenarios

Supports analysis of forecast accuracy improvements or declines

Applicable to renewable energy production simulations

Abstract

We describe algorithms for creating probabilistic scenarios for the situation when the underlying forecast methodology is modeled as being more (or less) accurate than it has been historically. Such scenarios can be used in studies that extend into the future and may need to consider the possibility that forecast technology will improve. Our approach can also be used to generate alternative realizations of renewable energy production that are consistent with historical forecast accuracy, in effect serving as a method for creating families of realistic alternatives -- which are often critical in simulation-based analysis methodologies