Rebellion on Sugarscape: Case Studies for Greed and Grievance Theory of Civil Conflicts using Agent-Based Models

TL;DR

This paper develops an agent-based model to analyze civil conflicts through the lens of greed and grievance theory, demonstrating how social interactions influence rebellion dynamics and policy impacts.

Contribution

It introduces modifications to an existing rebellion model to better capture social interactions and applies it to case studies for policy analysis.

Findings

Model reveals emergent rebellion patterns under different policies

Demonstrates the importance of social interactions in conflict dynamics

Provides a tool for policymakers to assess social unrest scenarios

Abstract

Public policy making has direct and indirect impacts on social behaviors. However, using system dynamics model alone to assess these impacts fails to consider the interactions among social elements, thus may produce doubtful conclusions. In this study, we examine the political science theory of greed and grievance in modeling civil conflicts. An agent-based model is built based on an existing rebellion model in Netlogo. The modifications and improvements in our model are elaborated. Several case studies are used to demonstrate the use of our model for investigating emergent phenomena and implications of governmental policies.