# Inferring prompt black-hole formation in neutron star mergers from gravitational-wave data

## TL;DR

This paper develops two methods to infer the likelihood of prompt black hole formation in neutron star mergers from gravitational-wave data, combining data analysis with numerical relativity insights.

## Contribution

It introduces two novel approaches to estimate prompt black hole formation probability using inspiral gravitational-wave signals and equation-of-state models.

## Key findings

- Both methods predict a 50-70% probability of prompt black hole formation for GW170817.
- Probability estimates decrease below 10% when maximum mass constraints are applied.
- The methods are consistent and provide insights into merger outcomes based on gravitational-wave data.

## Abstract

The gravitational-wave GW170817 is associated to the inspiral phase of a binary neutron star coalescence event. The LIGO-Virgo detectors sensitivity at high frequencies was not sufficient to detect the signal corresponding to the merger and post-merger phases. Hence, the question whether the merger outcome was a prompt black hole formation or not must be answered using either the pre-merger gravitational wave signal or electromagnetic counterparts. In this work we present two methods to infer the probability of prompt black hole formation, using the analysis of the inspiral gravitational-wave signal. Both methods combine the posterior distribution from the gravitational-wave data analysis with numerical relativity results. One method relies on the use of phenomenological models for the equation of state and on the estimate of the collapse threshold mass. The other is based on the estimate of the tidal polarizability parameter $\tilde{\Lambda}$ that is correlated in an equation-of-state agnostic way with the prompt BH formation. We analyze GW170817 data and find that the two methods consistently predict a probability of ~ 50-70% for prompt black-hole formation, which however may significantly decrease below 10% if the maximum mass constraint from PSR J0348+0432 or PSR J0740+6620 is imposed.