Moderate deviations of density-dependent Markov chains
Xiaofeng Xue

TL;DR
This paper establishes moderate deviation principles for density-dependent Markov chains, providing a probabilistic framework for understanding their path deviations under broad conditions.
Contribution
It introduces moderate deviation principles for DDMC paths using exponential martingales and a generalized Girsanov's theorem, expanding theoretical understanding.
Findings
Moderate deviation principles are proven for DDMC paths.
The proofs utilize exponential martingales and a generalized Girsanov's theorem.
Results apply under broad, generally satisfied assumptions.
Abstract
The density-dependent Markov chain (DDMC) introduced in \cite{Kurtz1978} is a continuous time Markov process applied in fields such as epidemics, chemical reactions and so on. In this paper, we give moderate deviation principles of paths of DDMC under some generally satisfied assumptions. The proofs for the lower and upper bounds of our main result utilize an exponential martingale and a generalized version of Girsanov's theorem. The exponential martingale is defined according to the generator of DDMC.
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Taxonomy
TopicsMarkov Chains and Monte Carlo Methods · Stochastic processes and statistical mechanics · Graph theory and applications
Moderate deviations of density-dependent Markov Chains
Xiaofeng Xue
Beijing Jiaotong University E-mail: [email protected] Address: School of Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China.
Abstract: The density-dependent Markov chain (DDMC) introduced in [16] is a continuous time Markov process applied in fields such as epidemics, chemical reactions and so on. In this paper, we give moderate deviation principles of paths of DDMC under some generally satisfied assumptions. The proofs for the lower and upper bounds of our main result utilize an exponential martingale and a generalized version of Girsanov’s theorem. The exponential martingale is defined according to the generator of DDMC.
Keywords: density-dependent Markov chain, moderate deviation, exponential martingale.
1 Introduction
In this paper we are concerned with the density-dependent Markov process (DDMC) introduced in [16]. For each integer , the density-dependent Markov chain is a Markov process with state space , where is a given closed and convex set and
[TABLE]
The transition rates function of is given by
[TABLE]
for each , where is a subset of while for each . To ensure , further satisfy
[TABLE]
if but for some .
Important examples of DDMC are given in former references, such as [4, 8, 13, 16, 18] and so on. Here we recall some of these examples. Note that we consider elements of as column vectors for later use while we use to denote the transposition operator.
Example 1 The contact process on the complete graph. Let , , , and
[TABLE]
for (we do not care for ), then is the number of infected vertices at moment for the contact process with infection rate on the complete graph with vertices.
For the contact process on the complete graph, each vertex is healthy or infected. An infected vertex recovers at rate one while a healthy vertex is infected at rate proportional to the number of infected vertices. For a detailed survey of the study of the contact process, see Chapter 6 of [17].
∎
Example 2 The SIR model on the complete graph. Let , ,
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
for , then is the state at moment of the SIR model with infection rate on the complete graph with vertices, where is the number of susceptible vertices while is the number of infected vertices.
For the SIR model, which is also called as the epidemic model, a vertex is in one of the three states ‘susceptible’, ‘infected’ and ‘removed’. An infected vertex is removed at rate one while a susceptible vertex is infected at rate proportional to the number of infected vertices.
∎
Example 3 Chemical reactions. Here we only discuss a special simple case. For general cases, see Section 11.1 of [8] or [13]. Assuming chemical reactants , , are undergoing the chemical reaction
[TABLE]
in a system with at most molecules. If the forward reaction occurs at rate for a given pair of a molecule and a molecule while the reverse reaction occurs at rate for a given molecule, then this chemical reaction can be described by DDMC with ,
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
where is the number of molecules at moment .
∎
Example 4 Yule process. The Yule process with rate is also a DDMC with ,
[TABLE]
and .
∎
Law of large numbers (LLN) and central limit theorem (CLT) of DDMC are given in [16].
Proposition 1.1**.**
(Kurtz, 1978) If satisfies Lipschitz condition on while
[TABLE]
then
[TABLE]
in probability for any , where is the unique solution to the ODE
[TABLE]
and is the norm of .
To recall CLT theorem, let for any .
Proposition 1.2**.**
(Kurtz, 1978) Under the assumption of Proposition 1.1, if converges weakly to as , then converges weakly to as , where is a time-inhomogeneous O-U process:
[TABLE]
such that
[TABLE]
where are independent standard Brownian motions and .
Large deviations are also discussed for DDMC. Under different assumptions of and , large deviations of paths of DDMC are established in Chapter 5 of [22] and [1, 4, 18] respectively.
In this paper we are concerned with the moderate deviation of DDMC, i.e., the goal of this paper is to show that
[TABLE]
under some generally satisfied assumptions for any in the Skorokhod space and sequence satisfying
[TABLE]
with a rate function . References (see page 285 of [6] or page 577 of [10]) show that the study of the moderate deviation dates back to 1928, when Khinchin gives the moderate deviation for independent Bernoulli stochastic variables. Over several past decades, moderate deviations are obtained for many different types of stochastic processes. References [2, 3, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 25, 26, 27] and so on can be consulted for an outline of this development.
This paper is inspired a lot by [10], where the moderate deviation of the hydrodynamic limit of the symmetric exclusion process (SEP) is discussed. Evidences show that DDMC has limit behavior similar with the hydrodynamic of the SEP. As we have recalled, LLN of DDMC is driven by an ODE on while the hydrodynamic of the SEP is driven by a heat equation, which can be considered as an ODE on the space of measures (see [14]). CLT of DDMC is driven by a time-inhomogeneous O-U process on while CLT of the hydrodynamic of the SEP is driven by a time-inhomogeneous O-U process on the space of measures (see Chapter 11 of [15]). As a result, we are motivated to study moderate deviation of DDMC, which is expected to be an analogue of the main result given in [10].
2 Main results
In this section we give our main results. First we introduce some notations and basic assumptions for later use. For any , we use to denote the norm of , i.e., .
Throughout this paper, we adopt the following basic assumptions.
Assumption (1): is a given point in .
Assumption (2): for each , .
Assumption (3): is a positive sequence such that and as .
Assumption (4): is finite.
Assumption (5): for each and there exists such that for any and .
It is easy to check that all the four examples in Section 1 satisfies Assumptions (1)-(5). Note that we do not assume that is bounded on (which Examples 1-3 satisfies) to make our results can be applied in examples such as Yule processes, where is dominated from above by a linear function of but unbounded on .
For given , we use to denote the set of càdlàg functions with . Under the metric introduced in [24], is a complete separable metric space, i.e, Skorokhod space.
Now we give the rate function. For any , we define
[TABLE]
where is defined as in Equation (1.1) and . Note that are both matrices. Then, for any , we define
[TABLE]
where
[TABLE]
for any and for and .
Now we give our main result. For simplicity, we use to denote the path of \big{\{}\frac{X_{t}^{n}-nX_{t}}{a_{n}}:0\leq t\leq T_{0}\big{\}}.
Theorem 2.1**.**
Under Assumptions (1)-(5), for any open set ,
[TABLE]
while for any closed set ,
[TABLE]
where is defined as in Equation (2). Furthermore, if is invertible for , then
[TABLE]
Here we give an intuitive explanation of Theorem 2.1 in the case where and . By Proposition 1.2, , where is the solution of
[TABLE]
Then, it is natural to non-rigorously think
[TABLE]
Let be a partition of with very small, then can be non-rigorously interpreted as
[TABLE]
i.e.,
[TABLE]
for each . Since follows from , the above event occurs with probability about
[TABLE]
Since are independent, occurs with probability about
[TABLE]
which non-rigorously shows that the rate function
[TABLE]
The rigorous proofs of the lower and upper bounds in Theorem 2.1 are given in Sections 4 and 5 respectively. The strategy of our proofs is similar with that utilized in [10], where an exponential martingale will be introduced. To define this martingale rigorously, some basic properties of are given in Section 3.
At the end of this section, we show that the two definitions of the rate function given in Equations (2) and (2.2) are equivalent under the assumption that is invertible.
Proof of Equation (2.2).
For , we only need to show that implies that is absolutely continuous and
[TABLE]
For makes , we define
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
for each . Then
[TABLE]
For each and ,
[TABLE]
Hence, get the maximum when . As a result,
[TABLE]
Let be the set of measurable such that
[TABLE]
Under the assumption that is invertible for , is positive-definite for . Therefore, is a Hilbert space under the inner product
[TABLE]
for . Note that
[TABLE]
which is the norm of generated by . For any , by Equation (2.3),
[TABLE]
Since is dense in , can be extended to
[TABLE]
such that \widetilde{\mathcal{L}}_{1,f}\Big{|}_{C^{2}\left([0,T_{0}],\mathbb{R}^{d}\right)}=\mathcal{L}_{1,f} and
[TABLE]
for any . That is to say, is a bounded linear operator on . Therefore, according to Riesz representation theorem, there exists such that
[TABLE]
for any . As a result, by the definition of ,
[TABLE]
for each . Then, according to the formula of integration by parts, is absolutely continuous and
[TABLE]
i.e.,
[TABLE]
By Equation (2.4) and Cauchy-Schwartz inequality, for any ,
[TABLE]
Therefore, by Equation (2.3),
[TABLE]
On the other hand, let such that under the distance generated by , then by Equation (2.4),
[TABLE]
while
[TABLE]
Hence, by Equation (2.3),
[TABLE]
By Equations (2.5), (2.6) and (2.7),
[TABLE]
∎
3 Preliminary results
In this section we give some preliminary results of for later applications in the proof of Theorem 2.1, i.e., the goal of this section is to prove the following three lemmas.
Lemma 3.1**.**
Under Assumptions (1)-(5), there exists such that
[TABLE]
for any and all .
Lemma 3.2**.**
Under Assumptions (1)-(5), there exist such that
[TABLE]
for all .
Lemma 3.3**.**
Under Assumptions (1)-(5), for any , there exists such that
[TABLE]
for sufficiently large , where is defined as in Equation (1.1).
Readers may think that Lemmas 3.2 and 3.3 are corollaries of the large deviation principle of DDMC given in [1, 4, 18] or [22]. However, the main theories in [1, 4, 18] or [22] requires the assumption that are bounded on . Hence the proofs of Lemmas 3.2 and 3.3 are still needed under our assumptions (1)-(5).
Note that Lemmas 3.1-3.3 relies heavily on the assumption that is finite. Estimations of moments of under a general assumption where is infinite can be found in Theorems 2.1 and 2.2 of [16].
Proof of Lemma 3.1.
Since is finite, by Assumption (5), there exist such that is stochastically dominated from above by the Markov process with and transition rates function given by
[TABLE]
Without loss of generality, we assume that is an integer for . For each , we use to denote the Yule process with rate and initial state , i.e.,
[TABLE]
Then, \big{\{}\frac{1}{K_{7}}\eta^{n}_{{}_{t/(K_{6}K_{7})}}:t\geq 0\big{\}} is a copy of \big{\{}\widetilde{\eta}_{t}^{n\left\|x_{0}\right\|/K_{7}}\big{\}}_{t\geq 0}. By classic theory of Yule process, follows geometric distribution with parameter while can be written as
[TABLE]
where are independent copies of . Therefore,
[TABLE]
for all and all . As a result, let , then Lemma 3.1 follows from the above coupling relationships between and .
∎
Proof of Lemma 3.2.
By classic theory of Yule process, . As we have introduced in the proof of Lemma 3.1,
[TABLE]
for sufficiently small . Hence, according to Equation (3.1) and large deviation of the sum of i.i.d stochastic variables (see Chapter 2 of [5]), there exists such that
[TABLE]
for all . As we have shown in the proof of Lemma 3.1,
[TABLE]
in the sense of coupling. As a result, Lemma 3.2 holds with and .
∎
Proof of Lemma 3.3.
By Assumptions (4) and (5), there exists such that
[TABLE]
for any . Then, according to Theorem 2.2 of [16], there exists independent Poisson processes with rate one such that
[TABLE]
where
[TABLE]
while . Let . Conditioned on ,
[TABLE]
where . Then, according to Lemma 3.2,
[TABLE]
for all , where is the cardinality of . By the property of Poisson process, for any , there exists such that
[TABLE]
for sufficiently large . For readers not familiar with this property, we put a proof at the end of this section. By Equations (3) and (3.3),
[TABLE]
for sufficiently large . As a result, Lemma 3.3 holds with
[TABLE]
∎
At the end of this section, we give the proof of Equation (3.3).
Proof of Equation (3.3).
For simplicity, we write as since are i.i.d.. Since is an independent increment process with for any , is a martingale. For any , is a convex function with , hence is a submartingale. Then, by Doob’s inequality,
[TABLE]
for any and . Since and
[TABLE]
there exists such that and
[TABLE]
According to a similar analysis, there exists such that and
[TABLE]
As a result, Equation (3.3) holds with
[TABLE]
∎
4 Proof of lower bounds
In this section we give the proof of the lower bound. As a preparation, we first introduce some notations and then define an exponential martingale. For each and , let be the convex combination of and such that
[TABLE]
Note that the existence of follows from Lagrange’s mean value theorem. We denote by the generator of , i.e.,
[TABLE]
for any sufficiently smooth . For any , let
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
then according to properties of continuous-time Markov processes (see Section 5 of Appendix 1 of [15]), and are both martingales. That is to say,
[TABLE]
Note that in this paper and are defined in the same way as that defined in [21], i.e, for a local martingale , is the unique predictable increasing process such that is a local martingale while is the quadratic-variation process of (which is not equal to when is not continuous). For two local martingales , and are defined as
[TABLE]
To utilize above martingales, for any , let and consequently
[TABLE]
then by direct calculation and Equation (4.1),
[TABLE]
where is a martingale with and
[TABLE]
for any . For later use, we define
[TABLE]
and consequently for any . Our exponential martingale is defined according to the following lemma.
Lemma 4.1**.**
For any , let
[TABLE]
then there exists such that is a martingale with expectation for each .
Proof.
According to Integration-by-parts formula (see Volume 2, Chapter 6, section 38 of [20]) and direct calculation,
[TABLE]
where
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
As we have recalled, is a martingale, hence is a local martingale. Therefore, to check that is a martingale for large , we only need to show that
[TABLE]
for sufficiently large . By direct calculation and Taylor’s expansion formula up to the second order,
[TABLE]
According to the definition of the quadratic-variation process of a discontinuous martingale (see Section 2 of [21]),
[TABLE]
As a result, according to Assumptions (3)-(5) and the coupling relationship given in the proof of Lemma 3.1, there exists depending on and such that
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
for sufficiently large , where is the Yule process defined as in Section 3. Then, Equation (4.4) follows directly from Lemma 3.1 and the facts that while follows a Geometric distribution.
∎
Let be the probability measure of our DDMC, then for and each , let be the probability measure such that
[TABLE]
then we have the following laws of large numbers.
Lemma 4.2**.**
As , converges in -probability to , where is defined as in Equation (1.1).
Lemma 4.3**.**
As , \big{\{}\frac{X_{t}^{n}-nX_{t}}{a_{n}}\big{\}}_{0\leq t\leq T_{0}} converges in -probability to the solution of the ODE
[TABLE]
where and are defined as in Section 1.
Proof of Lemma 4.2.
For any , according to Cauchy-Schwartz’s inequality,
[TABLE]
According to the definitions of and direct calculation,
[TABLE]
Then, by Assumptions (4) and (5), there exists depending on and such that
[TABLE]
Let , since ,
[TABLE]
for sufficiently large , where and . Therefore,
[TABLE]
As we have introduced in the proof of Lemma 3.2,
[TABLE]
while follows geometric distribution with rate and is the sum of i.i.d. copies of . Therefore, according to the fact that ,
[TABLE]
for sufficiently large , where . As a result, for sufficiently large ,
[TABLE]
and hence
[TABLE]
by Lemma 3.3 and Equation (4.6). Since ,
[TABLE]
for any and hence Lemma 4.2 holds.
∎
Proof of Lemma 4.3.
For , let be the th elementary unit vector of , i.e.,
[TABLE]
and denote by , then by Equation (4.2), satisfies
[TABLE]
where is a martingale for each and
[TABLE]
Since ,
[TABLE]
where . Then,
[TABLE]
Let be defined as in the proof of Lemma 4.1, then we define
[TABLE]
for each . Then, by Equation (4.3),
[TABLE]
For each and , let
[TABLE]
then by Equation (4.9) and Theorem 3.2 of [21], which is a generalized version of Girsanov’s Theorem, is a local martingale under and
[TABLE]
under and . Note that by Equation (4.1) and direct calculation,
[TABLE]
Let , then by Equations (4.8) and (4.10),
[TABLE]
where and .
By Lemma 4.2, converges in -probability to
[TABLE]
and converges in -probability to
[TABLE]
as .
By Assumption (5), there exists such that
[TABLE]
for any . Consequently, by Grownwall’s inequality,
[TABLE]
for any , where
[TABLE]
As we have shown, converges in -probability to [math]. Hence, to complete this proof, we only need to show that converges in -probability to [math], i.e., converges in -probability to [math] for each .
As we have recalled, under ,
[TABLE]
according to the generalized Girsanov’s theorem introduced in [21]. For any , let , then by Equation (4.12) and Assumption (4), there exists depending on such that
[TABLE]
for any . Then, by Doob’s inequality,
[TABLE]
for any . Consequently, we only need to show that
[TABLE]
for any to finish this proof. To prove Equation (4.13), we let
[TABLE]
i.e., is the number of jumps in . Then by Equation (4.12) and Assumption (4), there exists depending on such that . Therefore, according to a similar analysis with that in the proof of Lemma 4.2 and Cauchy-Schwartz’s inequality,
[TABLE]
According to a similar analysis with that in the proof of Lemma 3.1, there exists such that is stochastic dominated from above by under , where is the Yule process defined as in Section 3. As we have recalled, is the sum of i.i.d copies of a random variable following a Geometric distribution. Therefore, according to the large deviation principle for the sum of i.i.d. random variables and the fact that , there exists such that
[TABLE]
for sufficiently large . Since , Equation (4.13) follows from Equations (4.14) and (4.15) directly and the proof is complete.
∎
To give the proof of the lower bound, we need the following lemma, which is a generalized version of Equation (2.2) under the case where is not invertible.
Lemma 4.4**.**
If makes , then is absolutely continuous and there exists such that
[TABLE]
for and .
The proof of Lemma 4.4 follows from a similar strategy with that of Equation (2.2).
Proof of Lemma 4.4.
For making and , if but , then
[TABLE]
which is contradictory. Hence, implies that . For making , get maximum when , hence
[TABLE]
Note that when and only when almost everywhere for (square root of can be defined since is positive semi-definite). For , we write when and only when
[TABLE]
Then, is an equivalence relation. We define and
[TABLE]
For , we define
[TABLE]
It is easy to check that is well-defined and is a Hilbert space under . We define C^{2}_{\sigma,\simeq}\left([0,T_{0}],\mathbb{R}^{d}\right)=\big{\{}[g]:~{}g\in C^{2}\left([0,T_{0}],\mathbb{R}^{d}\right)\big{\}}. For , we define
[TABLE]
According to the fact that implies and hence , is well-defined and is a linear operator on . Then,
[TABLE]
Since and is dense in , can be extended to a bounded linear operator on and hence there exists such that
[TABLE]
for any according to Riesz representation theorem. As a result,
[TABLE]
for any . Therefore, is absolutely continuous and
[TABLE]
follows from the fact that
[TABLE]
for any by Cauchy Schwartz’s inequality. To prove , we choose such that converges to under the distance generated by as grows to infinity. Then,
[TABLE]
∎
At the end of this section, we give the proof of the lower bound.
Proof of the lower bound.
For given open set , if , then
[TABLE]
holds trivial. If , then for any , there exists such that . By Lemma 4.4, there exists such that
[TABLE]
Let such that converges to under the distance generated by as . For each , let be the solution to the ODE
[TABLE]
then converges to in and
[TABLE]
by Lemma 4.4. Then, there exists such that , and
[TABLE]
For any and , we use to denote the ball concentrated at with radius . Since is open, there exists such that . According to the definition of and the fact that ,
[TABLE]
Then, according to the definitions of and , there exists not depending on such that
[TABLE]
when and . Then, by Equation (4.16) and the expression of given in Equation (4),
[TABLE]
when and . We denote by the event that and , then by Lemmas 4.2 and 4.3,
[TABLE]
Therefore, by Equation (4),
[TABLE]
Then,
[TABLE]
Since is arbitrary, .
∎
5 Proof of upper bounds
In this section we give the proof of the upper bound, where the martingale introduced in Section 4 will be utilized. First we show that the upper bound holds for compact sets.
Lemma 5.1**.**
For any compact set ,
[TABLE]
Proof.
According to the definition of , for any and , there exists depending on and such that
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
for any when . Then, conditioned on and ,
[TABLE]
according to the expression of given in Equation (4). Therefore, by Lemma 4.1,
[TABLE]
for sufficiently large . As a result,
[TABLE]
By Lemma 3.3 and the fact that ,
[TABLE]
Hence,
[TABLE]
Since and are arbitrary,
[TABLE]
Note that is convex and continuous of for fixed while concave and continuous of for fixed , then according to the fact that is compact and the Minimax Theorem given in [23],
[TABLE]
and the proof is complete.
∎
To show that the upper bound holds for any closed sets, we need to check that is exponential tight. By the main theorem in [19], the exponential tightness of follows from the following lemma.
Lemma 5.2**.**
1)
[TABLE]
2) For any and ,
[TABLE]
where is the set of stopping times of with upper bound .
Proof.
For part 1, according to an analysis similar with that leading to Equation (3),
[TABLE]
for sufficiently large , where , while and is a Poisson process with rate one. According to an analysis similar with that in the proof of Equation (3.3),
[TABLE]
for any . Let , then
[TABLE]
Therefore, by Equation (5),
[TABLE]
and then Equation (5.1) holds.
For part 2, let , then
[TABLE]
by Lemma 3.2 and Equation (5.1). On , by Assumptions (4) and (5), there exists depending on and such that
[TABLE]
for . Then, for any and sufficiently large ,
[TABLE]
by taking (and hence ) in Equation (4). By Lemma 4.1, is a martingale with expectation for sufficiently large . Then, by Doob’s inequality,
[TABLE]
Then, by Equation (5),
[TABLE]
Therefore,
[TABLE]
for any . Let , then
[TABLE]
Since \big{\{}\frac{\omega^{n}_{t+\tau}(-\lambda e_{i})}{\omega^{n}_{\tau}(-\lambda e_{i})}\big{\}}_{0\leq t\leq\delta} is also a martingale with expectation for , similar analysis shows that
[TABLE]
Let , then part 2 follows from Equation (5.3).
∎
At last we give the proof of the upper bound.
Proof of the upper bound.
By Lemma 5.2 and Theorem B on page 47 of [19], is exponential tight, i.e., for any , there exists a compact set such that
[TABLE]
For given closed set , let such that . For each , let =, then is compact and
[TABLE]
while . By Lemma 5.1 and the fact that is compact,
[TABLE]
Then, by Equation (5.5),
[TABLE]
for any . Let , then
[TABLE]
follows from the fact that .
∎
6 Examples
In this section we apply our main results in the four examples given in Section 1. Throughout this section we assume that is a positive sequence such that and .
Example 1 The contact process on the complete graph. Let and for each , then follows Theorem 2.1 with
[TABLE]
for absolutely continuous, where
[TABLE]
and .
∎
Example 2 The SIR model on the complete graph. Let satisfy while and for each , then follows Theorem 2.1 with
[TABLE]
for absolutely continuous, where satisfies
[TABLE]
(see the time-change method introduced in Chapter 11 of [8]),
[TABLE]
Note that it is easy to check that and hence is invertible with
[TABLE]
∎
Example 3 Chemical reactions. Let satisfy while and , then follows Theorem 2.1 with given by Equation (2), where satisfy
[TABLE]
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
It is easy to check that implies for some absolutely continuous and then
[TABLE]
with and by Lemma 4.4.
∎
Example 4 Yule process with rate . Let and for each , then follows Theorem 2.1 with
[TABLE]
for absolutely continuous, where , and .
∎
Acknowledgments. The author is grateful to Dr. Linjie Zhao for useful suggestions. The author is grateful to the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China with grant number 11501542.
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