# Beyond the mini-solar maximum of solar cycle 24: Declining solar magnetic fields and the response of the terrestrial magnetosphere

## TL;DR

This study investigates how the Earth's magnetosphere has responded to declining solar magnetic activity since the mid-1990s, revealing an expansion of the magnetopause and potential risks to satellite systems.

## Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of the magnetopause and bow shock responses to long-term solar magnetic decline, including modeling and future shape forecasts.

## Key findings

- Magnetopause and bow shock distances have increased since the mid-1990s.
- Instances of magnetopause proximity to geostationary orbit occurred between 1968 and 2005.
- Potential satellite risks due to magnetopause proximity have been identified.

## Abstract

The present study examines the response of the terrestrial magnetosphere to the long-term steady declining trends observed in solar magnetic fields and solar wind micro-turbulence levels since mid-1990's that has been continuing beyond the mini-solar maximum of cycle 24. A detailed analysis of the response of the terrestrial magnetosphere has been carried out by studying the extent and shape of the Earth's magnetopause and bow shock over the past four solar cycles. We estimate sub-solar stand-off distance of the magnetopause and bow shock, and the shape of the magnetopause using numerical as well as empirical models. The computed magnetopause and bow shock stand-off distances have been found to be increasing steadily since around mid-1990's, consistent with the steady declining trend seen in solar magnetic fields and solar wind micro-turbulence levels. Similarly, we find an expansion in the shape of the magnetopause since 1996. The implications of the increasing trend seen in the magnetopause and bow shock stand-off distances are discussed and a forecast of the shape of the magnetopause in 2020, the minimum of cycle 24, has been made. Importantly, we also find two instances between 1968 and 1991 when the magnetopause stand-off distance dropped to values close to 6.6 earth radii, the geostationary orbit, for duration ranging from 9$-$11 hours and one event in 2005, post 1995 when the decline in photospheric fields began. Though there have been no such events since 2005, it represents a clear and present danger to our satellite systems.