# Statistical analysis of Curiosity data shows no evidence for a strong seasonal cycle of Martian methane

## TL;DR

This study uses Gaussian Process regression to analyze Martian methane data and finds no strong evidence supporting seasonal cycles, challenging previous assumptions about methane variability on Mars.

## Contribution

It applies Gaussian Process regression to Martian methane data, providing a rigorous statistical test for seasonal variability and clarifying the nature of methane fluctuations.

## Key findings

- No statistically significant seasonal cycle detected
- Data consistent with stochastic or non-seasonal processes
- Challenges previous claims of seasonal methane variation

## Abstract

Using Gaussian Process regression to analyze the Martian surface methane Tunable Laser Spectrometer (TLS) data reported by Webster (2018), we find that the TLS data, taken as a whole, are not statistically consistent with seasonal variability. The subset of data derived from an enrichment protocol of TLS, if considered in isolation, are equally consistent with either stochastic processes or periodic variability, but the latter does not favour seasonal variation.