Universal precursor seismicity pattern before locked-segment rupture

TL;DR

This paper identifies a universal seismicity pattern involving characteristic earthquakes and pre-shocks in locked segments, supported by a mechanical model and global seismic data, enhancing earthquake prediction capabilities.

Contribution

It introduces a mechanical model explaining the seismic precursor pattern and demonstrates its universal applicability across 62 seismic zones.

Findings

Characteristic earthquakes reliably occur at specific locked segment points.

Pre-shocks consistently precede characteristic earthquakes in the pattern.

The pattern applies universally to seismic zones worldwide.

Abstract

Despite the enormous efforts towards searching for precursors, no precursors have exhibited real predictive power with respect to an earthquake thus far. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major earthquakes are very heterogeneous and less brittle; progressive failures of the locked segments with these properties can produce an interesting seismic phenomenon: a characteristic earthquake and a sequence of smaller subsequent earthquakes (pre-shocks) always arise prior to another characteristic earthquake within a well-defined seismic zone and its current seismic period. Applying a mechanical model and magnitude constraint conditions, we show that two adjacent characteristic earthquakes reliably occur at the volume-expansion and peak-stress points of a locked segment. Such a seismicity pattern has occurred in 62 seismic zones worldwide, suggesting that the pattern applies universally. Both the precursor pattern and the model quantifying it permit the prediction of certain characteristic earthquakes in a seismic zone.