On Climate Change and Photovoltaic Energy Production

TL;DR

This study analyzes how climate change has already impacted photovoltaic energy production over the past decade and projects future performance reductions due to rising temperatures, highlighting socioeconomic implications.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of climate change effects on solar cell performance using a validated model and projects future impacts under different warming scenarios.

Findings

Silicon solar panels produced 4 kWh/m2 less power ten years ago.

Temperature is the main factor affecting silicon PV performance, accounting for 85%.

Future projections indicate a 0.7% to 2.5% performance reduction by 2100.

Abstract

As the 21st century progresses, photovoltaic technology is becoming a major provider of the worlds electricity, while effects of global climate change unfold. This development begs the question: is climate change affecting the energy production of solar cells? In this article, we attempt to answer this question looking backward and forward. We start by analyzing recent trends for global meteorological conditions and solar cell performance parameters, covering the ten-year period between 20016 and 2015. We leverage a field-verified performance model for two of the most well-established solar cell technologies that also feature very different sensitivities to changing operating conditions: silicon and cadmium telluride. We find that climate change has already left its mark: ten years ago, silicon solar panels -- on average -- generated 4 kWh per m2 more power than today. Correlating solar cell performance ratio changes and changes in operating conditions, we find that temperature globally is the leading factor for silicon (-0.52 pm 0.03% per K), accounting for approx. 85% of the observed effect. Water related light absorption in the atmosphere is most likely responsible for much of the remaining contribution. To predict how future solar cell performance is affected, we focus on the implications of raising temperatures. For the end of the 21st century, we project that silicon PV panels globally will suffer performance reductions of between 0.7% and 2.5% (8 to 30 kWh per kWp in North America), depending on the global warming scenario. These reductions will result in significant socioeconomic penalties, particularly in a world that produces a significant portion of its electricity from PV panels, and especially if additional effects of global warming, like accelerated panel degradation and extreme weather are considered.