The Impact of Global Warming on Silicon PV Energy Yield in 2100

TL;DR

This paper estimates the future reduction in silicon PV energy yield due to global warming by 2100, highlighting potential losses and mitigation strategies involving advanced cell technologies.

Contribution

It provides a projection of energy yield reductions for silicon PV panels under climate change scenarios using current temperature coefficients.

Findings

Median energy yield reduction of 15kWh per kWP by 2100.

Potential reductions up to 50kWh per kWP in some regions.

Higher efficiency and advanced cell architectures can mitigate losses.

Abstract

While the installed photovoltaic capacity grows to a terawatt scale, effects of global climate change unfold. The question arises, how a changing climate, and especially raising temperatures, will affect the performance of PV installations in the future. In this paper we present an estimate of the reduction in energy yield for silicon PV installations due to global warming in the year 2100. Using IPCC global warming scenarios and published temperature coefficients for todays silicon PV panels, we project median reductions in annual energy output of today's silicon solar panel of 15kWh per kWP, with reductions up to 50kWh per kWP in some areas. Higher efficiency cells and advanced cell and module architectures can significantly reduce these losses. Cell concepts with higher voltage are particularly effective in reducing temperature induced losses.