Nonparametric Estimation of the Trend in Reflected Fractional SDE
Nicolas Marie

TL;DR
This paper investigates the statistical properties of a nonparametric estimator for the trend component in a reflected fractional stochastic differential equation, focusing on consistency, convergence rate, and asymptotic distribution.
Contribution
It introduces a new nonparametric estimation method for the trend in reflected fractional SDEs and analyzes its theoretical properties.
Findings
Estimator is consistent under certain conditions
Derived the rate of convergence for the estimator
Established the asymptotic distribution of the estimator
Abstract
This paper deals with the consistency, a rate of convergence and the asymptotic distribution of a nonparametric estimator of the trend in the Skorokhod reflection problem defined by a fractional SDE and a Moreau sweeping process.
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Nonparametric Estimation of the Trend in Reflected Fractional SDE
Nicolas MARIE
*Laboratoire Modal’X, Université Paris Nanterre, Nanterre, France
*ESME Sudria, Paris, France
Abstract.
This paper deals with the consistency, a rate of convergence and the asymptotic distribution of a nonparametric estimator of the trend in the Skorokhod reflection problem defined by a fractional SDE and a Moreau sweeping process.
Key words and phrases:
Nonparametric estimation ; Trend estimation ; Skorokhod reflection problem ; Sweeping process ; Fractional Brownian motion ; Stochastic differential equations
Contents
Acknowledgments. This work was supported by the GdR TRAG. Many thanks to Paul Raynaud de Fitte for his advices.
1. Introduction
Consider and the Skorokhod reflection problem
[TABLE]
where is a Lipschitz continuous function, , is a fractional Brownian motion of Hurst index , is the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the differential measure of with respect to its variation measure , the multifunction is Lipschitz continuous for the Hausdorff distance, and is the normal cone of at point . The definition of the normal cone is stated later.
A solution to Problem (1), if it exists, is a couple of continuous functions from into such that for every . Roughly speaking, coincides with the solution to , except when hits the frontier of . Each time this situation occurs, is pushed inside of with a minimal force by . The differential inclusion defining the process in Problem (1) is equivalent to a (Moreau) sweeping process. Several authors studied Problem (1) when . For instance, the reader can refer to Bernicot and Venel [2], Slominski and Wojciechowski [21] or Castaing et al. [3]. When , the reader can refer to Falkowski and Slominski [8] or Castaing et al. [4]. In this last paper, the authors proved the existence, uniqueness and the convergence of an approximation scheme of the solution to Problem (1) under a nonempty interior condition on (see Assumption 2.2). In fact, in all these papers, the authors studied the Skorokhod reflection problem defined by a SDE and a sweeping process for a multiplicative and/or multidimensional noise.
Let be a kernel. The paper deals with the consistency, a rate of convergence and the asymptotic distribution of the nonparametric estimator
[TABLE]
of the trend
[TABLE]
of Problem (1), where
[TABLE]
and goes to zero when .
Along the last two decades, many authors studied statistical inference in stochastic differential equations driven by the fractional Brownian motion. Most references on the estimation of the trend component in fractional SDE deals with parametric estimators (see Kleptsyna and Le Breton [9], Tudor and Viens [22], Hu and Nualart [11], Chronopoulou and Tindel [7], Neuenkirch and Tindel [19], Mishura and Ralchenko [17], Hu et al. [12], etc.). On the nonparametric estimation of the trend component in fractional SDE, there are only few references. Saussereau [20] and Comte and Marie [6] study the consistency of some Nadaraya-Watson’s-type estimators of the drift function in a fractional SDE. In [16], Mishra and Prakasa Rao established the consistency and a rate of convergence of a nonparametric estimator of the whole trend of the solution to a fractional SDE. Our paper generalizes their results to the Skorokhod reflection Problem (1). On the nonparametric estimation in Itô’s calculus framework, the reader can refer to Kutoyants [13] and [14]. Up to our knowledge, there is no reference on the nonparametric estimation of the trend in reflected fractional SDE.
Section 2 deals with some preliminaries on the Skorokhod reflection problem defined by a fractional SDE and a sweeping process. Section 3 deals with the consistency, a rate of convergence and the asymptotic distribution of the estimator .
Notations and basic properties:
- (1)
For every , . 2. (2)
Consider a Hilbert space . For every closed convex subset of and every , is the normal cone of at :
[TABLE]
In particular, for and with such that ,
[TABLE] 3. (3)
For every , . 4. (4)
For every function from into and , . 5. (5)
Consider . The vector space of continuous functions from into is denoted by and equipped with the uniform norm defined by
[TABLE]
or the semi-norm defined by
[TABLE]
Moreover, and . 6. (6)
Consider . The set of all dissections of is denoted by . 7. (7)
Consider . A function is of finite -variation if and only if,
[TABLE]
Consider the vector space
[TABLE]
The map is a semi-norm on . Moreover, . 8. (8)
The vector space of Lipschitz continuous functions from a closed interval into is denoted by and equipped with the Lipschitz semi-norm defined by
[TABLE]
for every . Moreover, and . 9. (9)
For every ,
[TABLE]
2. Preliminaries
This section deals with some preliminaries on the Skorokhod reflection problem defined by a fractional SDE and a sweeping process.
First, the following theorem states a sufficient condition of existence and uniqueness of the solution to the unperturbed sweeping process defined by
[TABLE]
where .
Theorem 2.1**.**
Assume that for every , is a compact interval of . Moreover, assume that there exist and such that
[TABLE]
Then, Problem (3) has a unique continuous solution of finite -variation such that
[TABLE]
See Monteiro Marques [18] for a proof.
In the sequel, the multifunction fulfills the following assumption.
Assumption 2.2**.**
For every , is a compact interval of . Moreover, there exist and a continuous selection such that
[TABLE]
Let be a continuous function such that and consider the (generic) Skorokhod reflection problem
[TABLE]
where
[TABLE]
is a continuous function and is a continuous function of finite -variation. Under Assumption 2.2, by Theorem 2.1 together with Castaing et al. [5], Lemma 2.2, Problem (4) has a unique solution. Moreover, the following proposition provides a suitable control of for any continuous functions such that .
Proposition 2.3**.**
Under Assumption 2.2, for every continuous functions such that ,
[TABLE]
See Slominski and Wojciechowski [21], Proposition 2.3 for a proof.
Under Assumption 2.2, note that there exist , and such that
[TABLE]
for every and .
Proposition 2.4**.**
Consider and . Under Assumption 2.2, if , then
[TABLE]
The proof of Proposition 2.4 is the same that the proof of Castaing et al. [4], Proposition 2.5 but with the upper bound for the 1-variation norm of the 1-dimensional unperturbed sweeping process provided in Theorem 2.1 instead of the corresponding upper bound in the multidimensional case provided in Castaing et al. [4], Proposition 2.1.
For any ,
[TABLE]
Then Problem (4) is equivalent to
[TABLE]
So, one can use the previous results of this section in order to establish the existence and uniqueness of the solution to Problems (1) and (2).
Theorem 2.5**.**
Under Assumption 2.2,
- (1)
Problem (1) has a unique solution . Moreover, its paths belong to
[TABLE]
for every . 2. (2)
Problem (2) has a unique solution . Moreover, it is a Lipschitz continuous map from into such that
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
The proof of the existence of solutions to Problem (1) in Theorem 2.5 is the same that the proof of Castaing et al. [4], Theorem 3.1 but with the upper bound for the 1-variation norm of in Problem (4) provided in Proposition 2.4 instead of the corresponding upper bound in the multidimensional case provided in Castaing et al. [4], Proposition 2.5. Castaing et al. [4], Proposition 4.1 gives the uniqueness of the solution to Problem (1). Castaing et al. [5], Theorem 4.2 gives the existence, uniqueness and the regularity of the solution to Problem (2).
3. Convergence of the trend estimator
This section deals with the consistency, a rate of convergence and the asymptotic distribution of the estimator . First, the following lemma deals with the convergence of and when .
Lemma 3.1**.**
Under Assumption 2.2, if with , then there exists a deterministic constant , depending only on , and , such that
[TABLE]
Proof.
Consider and . By Proposition 2.3, for any ,
[TABLE]
Then,
[TABLE]
By Gronwall’s lemma,
[TABLE]
Moreover,
[TABLE]
This concludes the proof because . ∎
In the sequel, the bandwidth and the kernel fulfill the following assumptions.
Assumption 3.2**.**
The bandwidth satisfies .
Assumption 3.3**.**
The kernel is bounded and with .
For instance, the triangular kernel
[TABLE]
or the parabolic kernel
[TABLE]
fulfill Assumption 3.3.
Let us now establish the consistency and a rate of convergence for the estimator of the trend of Problem (1).
Theorem 3.4**.**
Under Assumptions 2.2 and 3.3, if with , then there exists a deterministic constant , depending only on , , , and , such that
[TABLE]
In particular, under Assumption 3.2, the estimator is consistent.
Proof.
First of all, for any ,
[TABLE]
where
[TABLE]
Let us find suitable controls of the supremum on of the second order moment of all these components.
- •
Note that
[TABLE]
Then, by Lemma 3.1,
[TABLE]
- •
Since is a Lipschitz continuous and compact-valued multifunction, is bounded by a deterministic constant depending only on (not on ). Then,
[TABLE]
Moreover, since ,
[TABLE]
- •
By Memin et al. [15], Theorem 1.1, there exists a deterministic constant , only depending on , such that
[TABLE]
where
[TABLE]
- •
Since the paths of are continuous and of finite -variation,
[TABLE]
Then, by Lemma 3.1,
[TABLE]
- •
Since is a Lipschitz continuous function (see Theorem 2.5.(2)),
[TABLE]
Moreover, since ,
[TABLE]
∎
Theorem 3.4 says that the quadratic risk of the estimator involves a squared bias of order and a variance term of order . The best possible rate is reached for a bandwidth choice of order .
Corollary 3.5**.**
Under Assumptions 2.2 and 3.3, if , then
[TABLE]
Corollary 3.5 is a straightforward consequence of Theorem 3.4.
In the sequel, fulfills the following assumption.
Assumption 3.6**.**
There exist such that for every , and
[TABLE]
Finally, Proposition 3.8 provides the asymptotic distribution of the estimator for every , where
[TABLE]
for every multifunction .
First, recall that for any , is the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the differential measure of with respect to its variation measure . In particular, if is absolutely continuous, then
[TABLE]
Lemma 3.7**.**
Under Assumption 3.6, is continuous on .
Proof.
Since is a Lipschitz continuous function, it is absolutely continuous. In other words, for every ,
[TABLE]
On the one hand, consider . So, there exists such that for any , and then
[TABLE]
Therefore, is continuous at time . On the other hand, consider . So, there exists such that for any , and then
[TABLE]
Therefore, since , is continuous at time . The same idea gives the continuity of on . ∎
The previous lemma states that is continuous when stays a little time on the frontier or in the interior of . Unfortunately, there is no reason for to be continuous each time enters or exits the frontier of .
Proposition 3.8**.**
Under Assumptions 3.6 and 3.3, if , and , then
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
where
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
Proof.
Since
[TABLE]
as established in the proof of Theorem 3.4,
[TABLE]
Let us study the behaviour of when .
- •
Since and for small enough,
[TABLE]
Therefore, by Lebesgue’s theorem,
[TABLE]
- •
Since is a Lipschitz continuous function, as recalled previously, . Then,
[TABLE]
Therefore, since is continuous on a neighborhood of by Lemma 3.7, by Lebesgue’s theorem,
[TABLE]
Finally,
[TABLE]
where
[TABLE]
Therefore,
[TABLE]
∎
Since is Lipschitz continuous on , the subset of times enters or exists the frontier of is countable. So, the Lebesgue measure of is equal to . Therefore, Proposition 3.8 is true for almost every in .
The reference list from the paper itself. Each links out to its DOI / PubMed record.
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- 2[2] F. Bernicot and J. Venel. Stochastic Perturbation of Sweeping Process and a Convergence Result for an Associated Numerical Scheme. Journal of Differential Equations 251, 4-5, 1195-1224, 2011.
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- 4[4] C. Castaing, N. Marie and P. Raynaud de Fitte. Sweeping Processes Perturbed by Rough Signals. Ar Xiv e-prints, 2017.
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