# Autocorrelations in pulsar glitch waiting times and sizes

## TL;DR

This study investigates autocorrelations in pulsar glitch sizes and waiting times, finding significant autocorrelation only in one pulsar and interpreting results within a stress-release model framework.

## Contribution

It introduces a meta-model for stress-release in pulsars and identifies specific autocorrelation patterns consistent or inconsistent with this model.

## Key findings

- Significant size autocorrelation in PSR J0534+2200
- No significant waiting time autocorrelation observed
- Model predicts no positive waiting time autocorrelation in quasiperiodic pulsars

## Abstract

Among the five pulsars with the most recorded rotational glitches, only PSR J0534$+$2200 is found to have an autocorrelation between consecutive glitch sizes which differs significantly from zero (Spearman correlation coefficient $\rho=-0.46$, p-value $=0.046$). No statistically compelling autocorrelations between consecutive waiting times are found. The autocorrelation observations are interpreted within the framework of a predictive meta-model describing stress-release in terms of a state-dependent Poisson process. Specific combinations of size and waiting time autocorrelations are identified, alongside combinations of cross-correlations and size and waiting time distributions, that are allowed or excluded within the meta-model. For example, future observations of any "quasiperiodic" glitching pulsar, such as PSR J0537$-$6910, should not reveal a positive waiting time autocorrelation. The implications for microphysical models of the stress-release process driving pulsar glitches are discussed briefly.