# Accelerating Experimental Design by Incorporating Experimenter Hunches

## TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel two-stage Gaussian process method that incorporates experimenter hunches about monotonic trends to accelerate Bayesian optimization in experimental design, ensuring convergence and improving efficiency.

## Contribution

The paper presents a new approach that effectively integrates expert monotonicity hunches into Bayesian optimization while maintaining theoretical convergence guarantees.

## Key findings

- Faster convergence than standard Bayesian optimization in simulations.
- Effective in real-world experimental design problems.
- Utilizes virtual samples to incorporate monotonicity information.

## Abstract

Experimental design is a process of obtaining a product with target property via experimentation. Bayesian optimization offers a sample-efficient tool for experimental design when experiments are expensive. Often, expert experimenters have 'hunches' about the behavior of the experimental system, offering potentials to further improve the efficiency. In this paper, we consider per-variable monotonic trend in the underlying property that results in a unimodal trend in those variables for a target value optimization. For example, sweetness of a candy is monotonic to the sugar content. However, to obtain a target sweetness, the utility of the sugar content becomes a unimodal function, which peaks at the value giving the target sweetness and falls off both ways. In this paper, we propose a novel method to solve such problems that achieves two main objectives: a) the monotonicity information is used to the fullest extent possible, whilst ensuring that b) the convergence guarantee remains intact. This is achieved by a two-stage Gaussian process modeling, where the first stage uses the monotonicity trend to model the underlying property, and the second stage uses `virtual' samples, sampled from the first, to model the target value optimization function. The process is made theoretically consistent by adding appropriate adjustment factor in the posterior computation, necessitated because of using the `virtual' samples. The proposed method is evaluated through both simulations and real world experimental design problems of a) new short polymer fiber with the target length, and b) designing of a new three dimensional porous scaffolding with a target porosity. In all scenarios our method demonstrates faster convergence than the basic Bayesian optimization approach not using such `hunches'.