Hour-scale persistent negative anomaly of atmospheric electrostatic field near the epicenter before earthquake

TL;DR

This paper identifies a persistent negative anomaly in atmospheric electrostatic fields as a precursor to earthquakes, proposes a physical mechanism involving radon decay and ionization, and introduces a prediction method called "DC Ez Determination" for short-term earthquake forecasting.

Contribution

It presents a novel physical explanation for atmospheric electrostatic anomalies before earthquakes and introduces a new prediction technique based on stable negative electric field measurements.

Findings

Negative electrostatic anomalies can predict earthquakes within hours to days.

The proposed mechanism links radon decay to atmospheric electric field changes.

A new prediction method, "DC Ez Determination," is introduced for earthquake forecasting.

Abstract

Although earthquake prediction is a big challenge in the world, some simple observational tools can capture many physical signals and demonstrate that an earthquake (EQ) may be forthcoming in short period. Many researchers have studied the significant variation of atmospheric electrostatic field related to the forthcoming earthquake. However, until now, there is not a compelling physical mechanism which can explain why atmospheric electrostatic abnormal signal could appear just before an earthquake. Here we present a precursor signal and propose a brief physical interpretation. Under fair air conditions, if the near-surface atmospheric electrostatic field Ez (oriented down when it is positive) presents a very stable negative anomaly (from -100 V/m to -5000 V/m), it will forebode that an earthquake (seismicity from 3-8) would take place in the next several to tens of hours within a distance less than 100 km. We name this prediction technique as "DC Ez Determination"(DED). In addition, the mechanism of such abnormal quasi-static electric field before a forthcoming earthquake has been proposed here: (1) Radon gas releases from the rock clefts near the epicenter during seismogenic process. (2) {\alpha} particles are produced due to the radioactive decay of Radon gas in the air. (3) {\alpha} particle ionizing radiation creates more positive particles in the air, which is much more effective than that {\beta} and {\gamma} particles produced during Radon radioactive decay. (4) The new positive particles change formal positive atmospheric electric field (Ez) into stably negative near the earth-surface. (5) The closer the instrument is to the epicenter, the more likely it is to observe the negative Ez signal related to the earthquake. It is recommended to establish an instrument network to capture the reliable precursor and make some warnings before the earthquake disaster.