# Unforeseen Evidence

## TL;DR

The paper introduces extended Bayesianism, a normative updating rule that allows beliefs to be updated on richer probability spaces, and provides criteria to verify belief consistency with this method.

## Contribution

It extends standard Bayesian updating to accommodate richer probability spaces and offers an observable criterion for belief consistency.

## Key findings

- Extended Bayesianism generalizes Bayesian updating.
- Provides an observable criterion for belief consistency.
- Applicable to probabilistic information from increased awareness.

## Abstract

I propose a normative updating rule, extended Bayesianism, for the incorporation of probabilistic information arising from the process of becoming more aware. Extended Bayesianism generalizes standard Bayesian updating to allow the posterior to reside on richer probability space than the prior. I then provide an observable criterion on prior and posterior beliefs such that they were consistent with extended Bayesianism.