Predictions for solar flares activity in solar cycle 25

TL;DR

This paper presents a novel long-term forecast model for solar flare activity during solar cycle 25, integrating internal solar and planetary factors, and emphasizing model falsifiability.

Contribution

It introduces a new phenomenological model combining solar and planetary components for solar flare prediction, addressing the gap in long-term space climate forecasts.

Findings

Forecasts specific solar flare activity for cycle 25

Model differentiates from existing space climate predictions

Predictions are designed to be falsifiable

Abstract

The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough terms. In this article a forecast for the evolution of solar cycle 25 in terms of solar flares activity is presented. It is derived from an existing phenomenological model based on the coupling of an internal solar component and a planetary component. In addition to competent temporal resolution, the predictions are characterized by features which both differentiate the model from other space climate forecasts and make it falsifiable.