# Solar cycle prediction

## TL;DR

This paper reviews various methods for predicting solar cycle amplitude and timing, highlighting the superior performance of precursor methods like polar field predictions and the emerging role of model-based forecasts.

## Contribution

It provides a comprehensive review of solar cycle prediction techniques, comparing their performance and discussing recent advances and future prospects.

## Key findings

- Precursor methods outperform extrapolation methods in accuracy.
- Polar field precursor has been consistently reliable.
- Model-based forecasts are gaining confidence despite limited history.

## Abstract

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle. In their overall performance during the course of the last few solar cycles, precursor methods have clearly been superior to extrapolation methods. One method that has yielded predictions consistently in the right range during the past few solar cycles is the polar field precursor. Nevertheless, some extrapolation methods may still be worth further study. Model based forecasts are quickly coming into their own, and, despite not having a long proven record, their predictions are received with increasing confidence by the community.