Logarithmic asymptotics for probability of component-wise ruin in a two-dimensional Brownian model
Krzysztof Debicki, Lanpeng Ji, Tomasz Rolski

TL;DR
This paper analyzes the probability of simultaneous ruin in a two-dimensional correlated Brownian motion model, deriving asymptotic formulas for large initial capital and exploring the impact of correlation on ruin probabilities.
Contribution
It provides a novel asymptotic analysis of the component-wise ruin probability in a two-dimensional Brownian model, including solving a complex two-layer optimization problem.
Findings
The adjustment coefficient depends critically on the correlation between the two processes.
Asymptotic ruin probabilities decay exponentially with initial capital.
The paper offers explicit formulas for the ruin probability's logarithmic asymptotics.
Abstract
We consider a two-dimensional ruin problem where the surplus process of business lines is modelled by a two-dimensional correlated Brownian motion with drift. We study the ruin function for the component-wise ruin (that is both business lines are ruined in an infinite-time horizon), where is the same initial capital for each line. We measure the goodness of the business by analysing the adjustment coefficient, that is the limit of as tends to infinity, which depends essentially on the correlation of the two surplus processes. In order to work out the adjustment coefficient we solve a two-layer optimization problem.
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Logarithmic asymptotics for probability of component-wise ruin in a two-dimensional Brownian model
Krzysztof Dȩbicki
Krzysztof Dȩbicki, Mathematical Institute, University of Wrocław, pl. Grunwaldzki 2/4, 50-384 Wrocław, Poland
,
Lanpeng Ji
Lanpeng Ji, School of Mathematics, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
and
Tomasz Rolski
Tomasz Rolski, Mathematical Institute, University of Wrocław, pl. Grunwaldzki 2/4, 50-384 Wrocław, Poland
Abstract:
We consider a two-dimensional ruin problem where the surplus process of business lines is modelled by a two-dimensional correlated Brownian motion with drift. We study the ruin function for the component-wise ruin (that is both business lines are ruined in an infinite-time horizon), where is the same initial capital for each line. We measure the goodness of the business by analysing the adjustment coefficient, that is the limit of as tends to infinity, which depends essentially on the correlation of the two surplus processes. In order to work out the adjustment coefficient we solve a two-layer optimization problem.
Key Words: Adjustment coefficient; logarithmic asymptotics; quadratic programming problem; ruin probability; two-dimensional Brownian motion
AMS Classification: Primary 60G15; secondary 60G70
1. Introduction
In classical risk theory, the surplus process of an insurance company is modelled by the compound Poisson risk model. For both applied and theoretical investigations, calculation of ruin probabilities for such model is of particular interest. In order to avoid technical calculations, diffusion approximation is often considered (e.g., [20, 16, 22, 2]), which results in tractable approximations for the interested finite-time or infinite-time ruin probabilities. The basic premise for the approximation is to let the number of claims grow in a unit time interval and to make the claim sizes smaller in such a way that the risk process converges to a Brownian motion with drift. Precisely, the Brownian motion risk process is defined by
[TABLE]
where is the initial capital, is the net profit rate and models the net loss process with the volatility coefficient. Roughly speaking, is an approximation of the total claim amount process by time minus its expectation, the latter is usually called the pure premium amount and calculated to cover the average payments of claims. The net profit, also called safety loading, is the component which protects the company from large deviations of claims from the average and also allows an accumulation of capital. Ruin related problems for Brownian models have been well studied; see, e.g., [15, 2].
In recent years, multi-dimensional risk models have been introduced to model the surplus of multiple business lines of an insurance company or the suplus of collaborating companies (e.g., insurance and reinsurance). We refer to [2] [Chapter XIII 9] and [3, 4, 5, 6, 13, 21, 8, 1, 7] for relevant recent discussions. It is concluded in the literature that in comparison with the well-understood 1-dimensional risk models, study of multi-dimensional risk models is much more challenging. It is shown recently in [11] that multi-dimensional Brownian model can serve as approximation of a multi-dimensional classical risk model in a Markovian environment. Therefore, obtained results for multi-dimensional Brownian model can serve as approximations of the multi-dimensional classical risk models in a Markovian environment; ruin probability approximation has been used in the aforementioned paper. Actually, multi-dimensional Brownian models have drawn a lot of attention due to its tractability and practical relevancy.
A -dimensional Brownian model can be defined in a matrix form as
[TABLE]
where are, respectively, (column) vectors representing the initial capital and net profit rate, is a non-singular matrix modelling dependence between different business lines, and is a standard -dimensional Brownian motion (BM) with independent coordinates. Here is the transpose sign. In what follows, vectors are understood as column vectors written in bold letters.
Different types of ruin can be considered in multi-dimensional models, which are relevant to the probability that the surplus of one or more of the business lines drops below zero in a certain time interval with either a finite constant or infinity. One of the commonly studied is the so-called simultaneous ruin probability defined as
[TABLE]
which is the probability that at a certain time all the surpluses become negative. Here for , is called finite-time simultaneous ruin probability, and is called infinite-time simultaneous ruin probability. Simultaneous ruin probability, which is essentially the hitting probability of to the orthant , has been discussed for multi-dimensional Brownian models in different contexts; see [14, 9]. In [14], for fixed the asymptotic behaviour of as has been discussed. Whereas, in [9], the asymptotic behaviour, as , of the infinite-time ruin probability , with has been obtained. Note that it is common in risk theory to derive the later type of asymptotic results for ruin probabilities; see, e.g., [12, 25, 5].
Another type of ruin probability is the component-wise (or joint) ruin probability defined as
[TABLE]
which is the probability that all surpluses get below zero but possibly at different times. It is this possibility that makes the study of more difficult.
The study of joint distribution of the extrema of multi-dimensional BM over finite-time interval has been proved to be important in quantitative finance; see, e.g., [19, 23]. We refer to [11] for a comprehensive summary of related results. Due to the complexity of the problem, two-dimensional case has been the focus in the literature, and for this case some explicit formulas can be obtained by using a PDE approach. Of particular relevance to the ruin probability is a result derived in [19] which shows that
[TABLE]
where are known constants, and is a function defined in terms of infinite-series, double-integral and Bessel function. Using the above formula one can derive an expression for in two-dimensional case as follows
[TABLE]
where the expression for the distribution of single supremum is also known; see [19]. Note that even though we have obtained explicit expression of in (1) for the two-dimensional case, it seems difficult to derive the explicit form of the corresponding infinite-time ruin probability by simply putting in (1).
By assuming , we aim to analyse the asymptotic behaviour of the infinite-time ruin probability as . Applying Theorem 1 in [10] we arrive at the following logarithmic asymptotics
[TABLE]
provided is non-singular, where , inequality of vectors are meant component-wise, and is the inverse matrix of the covariance function of , with and . Let us recall that conventionally for two given positive functions and , we write if .
For more precise analysis on , it seems crucial to first solve the two-layer optimization problem in (3) and find the optimization points . As it can be recognized in the following, when dealing with -dimensional case with the calculations become highly nontrivial and complicated. Therefore, in this contribution we only discuss a tractable two-dimensional model and aim for an explicit logarithmic asymptotics by solving the minimization problem in (3).
In the classical ruin theory when analysing the compound Poisson model or Sparre Andersen model, the so-called adjustment coefficient is used as a measure of goodness; see, e.g., [2] or [26]. It is of interest to obtain the solution of the minimization problem in (3) from a practical point of view, as it can be seen as an analogue of the adjustment coefficient and thus we could get some insights about the risk that the company is facing. As discussed in [2] and [24] it is also of interest to know how the dependence between different risks influences the joint ruin probability, which can be easily analysed through the obtained logarithmic asymptotics; see Remark 2.2.
The rest of this paper is organised as follows. In Section 2, we formulate the two-dimensional Brownian model and give the main results of this paper. The main lines of proof with auxiliary lemmas are displayed in Section 3. In Section 4 we conclude the paper. All technical proofs of the lemmas in Section 3 are presented in Appendix.
2. Model formulation and main results
Due to the fact that component-wise ruin probability does not change under scaling, we can simply assume that the volatility coefficient for all business lines is equal to 1. Furthermore, noting that the timelines for different business lines should be distinguished as shown in (1) and (3), we introduce a two-parameter extension of correlated two-dimensional BM defined as
[TABLE]
with and mutually independent Brownian motions . We shall consider the following two dependent insurance risk processes
[TABLE]
where are net profit rates, is the initial capital (which is assumed to be the same for both business lines, as otherwise, the calculations become rather complicated). We shall assume without loss of generality that . Here, is different from (see (1)) in the sense that it corresponds to the (scaled) model with volatility coefficient standardized to be 1.
In this contribution, we shall focus on the logarithmic asymptotics of
[TABLE]
Define
[TABLE]
and let
[TABLE]
The following theorem constitutes the main result of this contribution.
Theorem 2.1**.**
For the joint infinite-time ruin probability (2) we have, as ,
[TABLE]
Remark 2.2**.**
a). Following the classical one-dimensional risk theory we can call quantities on the right hand side in Theorem 2.1 as adjustment coefficients. They serve sometimes as a measure of goodness for a risk business.
b). One can easily check that adjustment coefficient as a function of is continuous, strictly decreasing on , and it is constant, equal to on . This means that as the two lines of business becomes more positively correlated the risk of ruin becomes larger, which is consistent with the intuition.
Define
[TABLE]
where is the inverse matrix of \ \Sigma_{ts}=\left(\begin{array}[]{cc}t&\rho\ t\wedge s\\ \rho\ t\wedge s&s\\ \end{array}\right), with and .
The proof of Theorem 2.1 follows from (3) which implies that the logarithmic asymptotics for is of the form
[TABLE]
where
[TABLE]
and Proposition 2.3 below, wherein we list dominating points that optimize the function over and the corresponding optimal values .
In order to solve the two-layer minimization problem in (10) (see also (8)) we define for the following functions:
[TABLE]
Since appears in the above formula, we shall consider a partition of the quadrant , namely
[TABLE]
For convenience we denote and . Hereafter, all sets are defined on , so will be omitted.
Note that can be represented in the following form:
[TABLE]
Denote further
[TABLE]
In the next proposition we identify the so-called dominating points, that is, points for which function defined in (8) achieves its minimum. This identification might also be useful for deriving a more subtle asymptotics for .
Notation: In the following, in order to keep the notation consistent, is understood as if
Proposition 2.3**.**
- (i).
*Suppose that . *
For we have
[TABLE]
*where, **is the unique minimizer of . *
For we have
[TABLE]
where are the only two minimizers of .
- (ii).
Suppose that . We have
[TABLE]
where is the unique minimizer of .
- (iii).
Suppose that . We have
[TABLE]
where , is the unique minimizer of , with defined in (6).
- (iv).
Suppose that . We have
[TABLE]
where is the unique minimizer of .
- (v).
Suppose that . We have , and
[TABLE]
where the minimum of is attained at , with , and is the unique minimizer of .
- (vi).
Suppose that . We have
[TABLE]
where the minimum of is attained when .
Remark 2.4**.**
*In case that , we have , and thus scenarios (ii) and (vi) do not apply. *
3. Proofs of main results
As discussed in the previous section, Proposition 2.3 combined with (9), straightforwardly implies the thesis of Theorem 2.1. In what follows, we shall focus on the proof of Proposition 2.3, for which we need to find the dominating points by solving the two-layer minimization problem (10).
The solution of quadratic programming problem of the form (8) (inner minimization problem of (10)) has been well understood; e.g., [17, 18] (see also Lemma 2.1 of [9]). For completeness and for reference, we present below Lemma 2.1 of [9] for the case where .
We introduce some more notation. If , then for a vector we denote by a sub-block vector of . Similarly, if further , for a matrix we denote by M_{IJ}{\color[rgb]{0,0,0}=M_{I,J}}=(m_{ij})_{i\in I,j\in J} the sub-block matrix of determined by and . Further, write for the inverse matrix of whenever it exists.
Lemma 3.1**.**
Let be a positive definite matrix. If , then the quadratic programming problem
[TABLE]
has a unique solution and there exists a unique non-empty index set such that
[TABLE]
Furthermore,
[TABLE]
For the solution of the quadratic programming problem (8) a suitable representation for is worked out in the following lemma.
For let and , with boundary functions given by
[TABLE]
and the unique intersection point of given by
[TABLE]
as depicted in Figure 1.
Lemma 3.2**.**
Let be given as in (8). We have:
- (i).
If then
[TABLE]
- (ii).
If then
[TABLE]
Moreover, we have for all .
3.1. Proof of Proposition 2.3
We shall discuss in order the case when and the case when in the following two subsections. In both scenarios we shall first derive the minimizers of the function on regions and (see (11)) separately, and then look for a global minimizer by comparing the two minimum values. For clarity some scenarios are analysed in forms of lemmas.
3.1.1. Case
By Lemma 3.2, we have that
[TABLE]
We shall derive the minimizers of on separately.
Minimizers of on . We have, for any fixed ,
[TABLE]
where the representation (14) is used. Two roots of the above equation are:
[TABLE]
Note that, due to the form of the function given in (14), for any fixed , there exists a unique minimizer of on which is either an inner point or (the one that is larger than ), or a boundary point . Next, we check if any of is larger than . Since , . So we check if . It can be shown that
[TABLE]
Two scenarios and will be distinguished.
Scenario . We have from (19) that
[TABLE]
and thus
[TABLE]
where
[TABLE]
Next, since
[TABLE]
the unique minimizer of on is given by with
[TABLE]
Scenario . We have from (19) that
[TABLE]
and in this case,
[TABLE]
where is given in (15). Note that
[TABLE]
Next, for we have that (recall given in (21))
[TABLE]
Therefore, by (22) we conclude that the unique minimizer of on is again given by . Consequently, for all , we have that the unique minimizer of on is given by , and
[TABLE]
Minimizers of on . Similarly, we have, for any fixed ,
[TABLE]
Two roots of the above equation are:
[TABLE]
Next, we check if any of is greater than . Again as . So we check if . It can be shown that
[TABLE]
Thus, for Scenario we have that
[TABLE]
and in this case
[TABLE]
with
[TABLE]
Next, note that
[TABLE]
Therefore, the unique minimizer of on is given by with
[TABLE]
For Scenario we have from (26) that
[TABLE]
In this case,
[TABLE]
Though it is not easy to determine explicitly the optimizer, we can conclude that the minimizer should be taken at , or , where . Further, we have from the discussion in (22) that
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
Combining the above discussions on , we conclude that Proposition 2.3 holds for .
3.1.2. Case
We shall derive the minimizers of on separately. We start with discussions on , for which we give the following lemma. Recall defined in (23) (see also (6)), defined in (27), defined in (28), and defined in (17) for . Note that where it applies, is understood as and is understood as [math].
Lemma 3.3**.**
We have:
(a). The function is a decreasing function on , and both and are decreasing functions on .
(b). The function decreases from at to some positive value and then increases to at (defined in (5)), and then increases to at the root {\color[rgb]{0,0,0}\hat{\rho}}\in(0,1] of the equation
(c). For , we have
[TABLE]
where both equalities hold only when and
(d). It holds that
[TABLE]
Moreover, for we have
- (i).
**
- (ii).
**
- (iii).
t^{**}(\rho)<s_{1}^{*}(\rho)\ \text{for\ all}\ \rho\in(\mu_{1}/\mu_{2},\hat{\rho}_{2}),\ \ \ t^{**}(\rho)>s_{1}^{*}(\rho)\ \text{for\ all}\ \rho\in(\hat{\rho}_{2},{\color[rgb]{0,0,0}\hat{\rho}}).**
- (iv).
t^{**}(\rho)<t^{*}(\rho)\ \text{for\ all}\ \rho\in(\mu_{1}/\mu_{2},\hat{\rho}_{2}),\ \ \ t^{**}(\rho)>t^{*}(\rho)\ \text{for\ all}\ \rho\in(\hat{\rho}_{2},{\color[rgb]{0,0,0}\hat{\rho}}).**
- (v).
t^{**}(\rho)<t_{B}(\rho)\ \text{for\ all}\ \rho\in(\mu_{1}/\mu_{2},\hat{\rho}_{2}),\ \ \ t^{**}(\rho)>t_{B}(\rho)\ \text{for\ all}\ \rho\in(\hat{\rho}_{2},{\color[rgb]{0,0,0}\hat{\rho}}).**
Recall that by definition (cf. (15)). For the minimum of on we have the following lemma.
Lemma 3.4**.**
We have
- (i).
If , then
[TABLE]
where is the unique minimizer of on .
- (ii).
If , then , and
[TABLE]
where the minimum of on is attained at , with , and is the unique minimizer of
- (iii).
If , then
[TABLE]
*where the minimum of on is attained when on *(see Figure 1).
Next we consider the minimum of on . Recall defined in (23), defined in (20), and defined in (21). We first give the following lemma.
Lemma 3.5**.**
We have
(a). Both and are decreasing functions on .
(b). That is the unique point on such that
[TABLE]
and
- (i).
,
- (ii).
**
(c). For all , it holds that .
For the minimum of on we have the following lemma.
Lemma 3.6**.**
We have
- (i).
If , then
[TABLE]
where is the unique minimizer of on .
- (ii).
If , then
[TABLE]
where is the unique minimizer of on .
- (iii).
If , then
[TABLE]
where is the unique minimizer of on .
- (iv).
If , then , and
[TABLE]
where the minimum of on is attained at , with .
- (v).
If , then
[TABLE]
where the minimum of on is attained when on (see Figure 1).
Consequently, combining the results in Lemma 3.4 and Lemma 3.6, we conclude that Proposition 2.3 holds for . Thus, the proof is complete.
4. Conclusion and discussions
In the multi-dimensional risk theory, the so-called “ruin” can be defined in different manner. Motivated by diffusion approximation approach, in this paper we modelled the risk process via a multi-dimensional BM with drift. We analyzed the component-wise infinite-time ruin probability for dimension by solving a two-layer optimization problem, which by the use of Theorem 1 from [10] led to the logarithmic asymptotics for as , given by explicit form of the adjustment coefficient (see (9)). An important tool here is Lemma 3.1 on the quadratic programming, cited from [17]. In this way we were also able to identify the dominating points by careful analysis of different regimes for and specify three regimes with different formulas for (see Theorem 2.1). An open and difficult problem is the derivation of exact asymptotics for in (2), for which the problem of finding dominating points would be the first step. A refined double-sum method as in [9] might be suitable for this purpose. A detailed analysis of the case for dimensions seems to be technically very complicated, even for getting the logarithmic asymptotics. We also note that a more natural problem of considering , with general , leads to much more difficult technicalities with the analysis of .
Define the ruin time of component , , by and let be the order statistics of ruin times. Then the component-wise infinite-time ruin probability is equivalent to while the ruin time of at least one business line is . Other interesting problems like have not yet been analysed. For instance, it would be interesting for to study the case . The general scheme on how to obtain logarithmic asymptotics for such problems was discussed in [10].
Random vector has exponential marginals and if it is not concentrated on a subspace of dimension less than , it defines a multi-variate exponential distribution. In this paper for dimension , we derived some asymptotic properties of such distribution. Little is known about properties of this multi-variate distribution and more studies on it would be of interest. For example a correlation structure of is unknown. In particular, in the context of findings presented in this contribution, it would be interesting to find the correlation between and .
Appendix
Proof of Lemma 3.2: Referring to Lemma 3.1, we have, for any fixed , there exists a unique index set
[TABLE]
such that
[TABLE]
and
[TABLE]
Since or , we have that
- (S1).
On the set ,
- (S2).
On the set ,
- (S3).
On the set , .
Clearly, if then
[TABLE]
In this case,
[TABLE]
Next, we focus on the case where . We consider the regions and separately.
Analysis on . We have
[TABLE]
Next we analyse the intersection situation of the functions on region .
Clearly, for any we have . Furthermore, has a unique positive solution given by
[TABLE]
Finally, for we have that does not intersect with on , but for the unique intersection point is given by (cf. (17)). To conclude, we have, for
[TABLE]
and for
[TABLE]
Additionally, we have from Lemma 3.1 for all .
Analysis on . The two scenarios and will be considered separately. For we have
[TABLE]
It is easy to check that
[TABLE]
and thus
[TABLE]
For we have
[TABLE]
Next we analyze the intersection situation of the functions on region .
Clearly, for any . and do not intersect on . and has a unique intersection point (cf. (17)).
To conclude, we have, for
[TABLE]
and for
[TABLE]
Additionally, it follows from Lemma 3.1 that for all .
Consequently, the claim follows by a combination of the above results. This completes the proof.
Proof of Lemma 3.3. (a). The claim for follows by noting its following representation:
[TABLE]
The claims for and follow directly from their definition.
(b). First note that
[TABLE]
Next it is calculated that
[TABLE]
Thus, the claim of (b) follows by analysing the sign of over .
(c). For any we have and thus
[TABLE]
Further, since
[TABLE]
it follows that
[TABLE]
(d). It is easy to check that (29) holds. For (i) we have
[TABLE]
where
[TABLE]
Analysing the properties of the above two functions, we have is strictly decreasing on with
[TABLE]
and thus there is a unique intersection point of the two curves and which is . Therefore, the claim of (i) follows. Similarly, the claim of (ii) follows since
[TABLE]
Finally, the claims of (iii), (iv) and (v) follow easily from (a), (b) and (29). This completes the proof.
Proof of Lemma 3.4. Consider first the case where . Recall (25). We check if any of is greater than . Clearly, . Next, we check whether . It is easy to check that
[TABLE]
where (recall (28))
[TABLE]
Then
[TABLE]
Consequently, it follows from (c) of Lemma 3.3 the claim of (i) holds for .
Next, we consider . Recall the function defined in (16). Denote the inverse function of by
[TABLE]
We have from Lemma 3.2 that
[TABLE]
Further note that is the unique minimizer of . For we have from (d) in Lemma 3.3 that
[TABLE]
and further
[TABLE]
where is the unique minimizer of on . Therefore, the claim for is established.
For , because of (29) we have
[TABLE]
and the unique minimum of on is attained at . Moreover, for all we have
[TABLE]
Thus,
[TABLE]
and the unique minimum of on is attained when on . This completes the proof.
Proof of Lemma 3.5. (a). The claim for has been shown in the proof of (a) in Lemma 3.3. Next, we show the claim for , for which it is sufficient to show that for all . In fact, we have
[TABLE]
(b). In order to prove (i), the following two scenarios will be discussed separately:
[TABLE]
First consider (S1). If , then
[TABLE]
where
[TABLE]
Analysing the function , we conclude that
[TABLE]
Further, for we have
[TABLE]
Thus, the claim in (i) is established for (S1). Similarly, the claim in (i) is valid for (S2) . Next, note that
[TABLE]
with
[TABLE]
Analysing the properties of the above two functions, we have is strictly decreasing on with
[TABLE]
and thus there is a unique intersection point of and . It seems not clear at the moment whether this unique point is or not, since we have to solve a polynomial equation of order 4. Instead, it is sufficient to show that
[TABLE]
In fact, basic calculations show that the above is equivalent to
[TABLE]
which is valid due to the fact that . Finally, the claim in (c) follows since
[TABLE]
This completes the proof.
Proof of Lemma 3.6. Two cases and should be distinguished. Since the proofs for these two cases are similar, we give below only the proof for the more complicated case .
Note that, for , as in (22),
[TABLE]
and thus the claim for follows directly from (i)-(ii) of (b) in Lemma 3.5. Next, we consider the case (note here ). We have by (i) of (d) in Lemma 3.3 and (i)-(ii) of (b) in Lemma 3.5 that
[TABLE]
Thus, it follows from Lemma 3.2 that
[TABLE]
and is the unique minimizer of on . Here we used the fact that
[TABLE]
Next, if , then
[TABLE]
and thus
[TABLE]
Furthermore, the unique minimum of on is attained at , with .
Finally, for , we have
[TABLE]
and thus
[TABLE]
where the unique minimum of on is attained when on . This completes the proof.
Acknowledgement: We are thankful to the referees for their carefully reading and constructive suggestions which significantly improved the manuscript. TR & KD acknowledge partial support by NCN Grant No 2015/17/B/ST1/01102 (2016-2019).
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