Parametric and non-parametric estimation of extreme earthquake event: the joint tail inference for mainshocks and aftershocks

TL;DR

This paper compares parametric and non-parametric methods for estimating the probability of extreme earthquake events involving mainshocks and aftershocks, using data from Turkey's North Anatolian Fault Zone.

Contribution

It introduces and compares parametric and non-parametric joint tail inference methods for extreme earthquake event estimation.

Findings

Both approaches yield consistent results.

The methods effectively analyze earthquake data from NAFZ.

The study enhances understanding of joint extreme earthquake probabilities.

Abstract

In an earthquake event, the combination of a strong mainshock and damaging aftershocks is often the cause of severe structural damages and/or high death tolls. The objective of this paper is to provide estimation for the probability of such extreme events where the mainshock and the largest aftershocks exceed certain thresholds. Two approaches are illustrated and compared -- a parametric approach based on previously observed stochastic laws in earthquake data, and a non-parametric approach based on bivariate extreme value theory. We analyze the earthquake data from the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkey during 1965-2018 and show that the two approaches provide unifying results.