Empirical Predictions for the Period Distribution of Planets to be Discovered by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite

TL;DR

This paper estimates the distribution of exoplanet orbital periods detectable by TESS, providing predictions for different observational durations and detection criteria, which can inform expectations for TESS's exoplanet discoveries.

Contribution

It offers the first detailed predictions of TESS's exoplanet orbital period distribution based on observational duration and detection criteria, aiding future analysis.

Findings

Most frequently detected periods are around 5-11 days for two-transit detection.

Expected mean orbital period is approximately 8-11 days depending on observation duration.

Predictions suggest potential differences in planet occurrence rates compared to Kepler.

Abstract

Launched on April 2018, NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has been performing a wide-field survey for exoplanets orbiting stars with a goal of producing a rich database for follow-on studies. Here we present estimates of the detected exoplanet orbital periods in the 2-minute cadence mode during the TESS mission. For a two-transit detection criterion, the expected mean value of the most frequently detected orbital period is 5.01 days with the most frequently detected range of 2.12 to 11.82 days in the region with observation of 27 days. Near the poles where the observational duration is 351 days, the expected mean orbital period is 10.93 days with the most frequently detected range being from 3.35 to 35.65 days. For one-transit, the most frequently detected orbital period is 8.17 days in the region with observation of 27 days and 11.25 days near the poles. For the entire TESS mission containing several sectors, we estimate that the mean value of orbital period is 8.47 days for two-transit and 10.09 days for one-transit, respectively. If TESS yields a planet population substantially different from what's predicted here, the underlying planet occurrence rates are likely different between the stellar sample probed by TESS and that by Kepler.