# Yarkovsky effect detection and updated impact hazard assessment for Near-Earth Asteroid (410777) 2009 FD

## TL;DR

This study detects the Yarkovsky effect on asteroid 2009 FD, refines its impact risk assessment over 200 years, and finds the main impact threat in 2190 with extremely low probability, improving long-term hazard predictions.

## Contribution

It provides the first significant detection of the Yarkovsky effect on 2009 FD and updates its impact hazard assessment using two independent methods.

## Key findings

- Detected the Yarkovsky effect with 4-sigma significance.
- Ruled out impact in 2185, remaining risk in 2190 with probability < 10^-8.
- Refined asteroid trajectory and impact predictions over 200 years.

## Abstract

Near-Earth asteroid (410777) 2009 FD is a potentially hazardous asteroid with potential impacts on Earth at the end of the 22nd century. The astrometry collected during the 2019 apparition provides information on the trajectory of (410777) by constraining the Yarkovsky effect, which is the main source of uncertainty for future predictions, and informing the impact hazard assessment. We included the Yarkovsky effect in the force model and estimated its magnitude from the fit to the (410777) optical and radar astrometric data. We performed the (410777) hazard assessment over 200 years by using two independent approaches: the NEODyS group adopted a generalisation of the Line Of Variations method in a 7-dimensional space, whereas the JPL team resorted to the Multilayer Clustered Sampling technique. We obtain a 4-sigma detection of the Yarkovsky effect acting on (410777), which corresponds to a semimajor axis drift of (3.6 +/- 0.9) x 10^{-3} au/Myr. As for the hazard results of both teams, the main impact possibility in 2185 is ruled out and the only remaining one is in 2190, but with a probability smaller than 10^{-8}.