MEDEAS-World model calibration for the study of the energy transition

TL;DR

This paper introduces the MEDEAS-World model, a comprehensive global energy-economy-environment model, and demonstrates its calibration to reproduce IPCC emission pathways aligned with 2°C warming, highlighting the influence of GDP on emissions.

Contribution

The paper presents a new integrated model and its calibration method to simulate global emissions pathways, emphasizing the role of economic growth in climate scenarios.

Findings

Model successfully reproduces IPCC emission pathways

GDP has a significant impact on emission trajectories

Parameter optimization improves model accuracy

Abstract

MEDEAS (Modelling the Energy Development under Environmental And Socioeconomic constraint) World is a new global-aggregated energy-economy-environmental model, which runs from 1995 to 2050. In this work, we tested the MEDEAS world model to reproduce the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) GHG (Green House Gases) emission pathways consistent with 2 {\deg}C Global Warming. We achieved parameter optimizations of the MEDEAS model related to different scenarios until 2050. We chose to provide a sensitivity analysis on the parameters that directly influence the emission curves focusing on the annual growth of the RES (Renewable Energy Sources), GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and annual population growth. From such an analysis, it has been possible to infer the large impact of GDP on the emission scenarios.